Cleveland Cavaliers vs Philadelphia 76ers

League: NBA | Date: 2025-11-05 07:10 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-05 05:35 PM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [Cleveland Cavaliers / Spread / -11.5 at -110 / 56% / Cavaliers’ elite defensive rating (104.2 allowed per 100 possessions) and home dominance (8-1 SU) exploit 76ers’ injuries to Embiid/George, covering in 56% of simulations despite public lean.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 237.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams rank top-10 in defensive efficiency this season; simulations average 228.4 points with Mobley/Allen limiting Philly’s interior, favoring under amid back-to-back fatigue for 76ers.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Cleveland Cavaliers / Moneyline / -470 / 72% / Undisputed home favorites with 72% win probability in sims, bolstered by Mitchell’s scoring edge against depleted Sixers roster.]

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Philadelphia 76ers on 2025-11-05

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[Cleveland Cavaliers 78% / Philadelphia 76ers 22%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Cleveland Cavaliers 68% / Philadelphia 76ers 32%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at -10.5 for Cavaliers but ticked to -11.5 across books like BetRivers and DraftKings on heavy Cavs money, signaling sharp reinforcement despite public pile-on; total steady at 237.5 with slight under juice on DraftKings.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Cavaliers spread / Implied probability undervalues sim’s 56% cover rate given 76ers’ 5-2 record masking Embiid/George absences and back-to-back spot; EV positive from reverse line movement against Philly bets.]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Cleveland Cavaliers | 72% |
| Win % for Philadelphia 76ers | 28% |
| Spread Cover % for Cleveland Cavaliers | 56% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 228.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [+4, +16] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Donovan Mitchell / Over Points / 26.5 at -128 / 65% / Mitchell’s 28.2 PPG usage surges vs. Philly’s weak perimeter D (36% opponent 3PT allowed); hit over in 7/9 recent games, sims project 27.8.
Player Prop #2: Evan Mobley / Over Rebounds / 9.5 at -104 / 70% / Mobley’s 10.1 RPG elite on defensive glass (28% rate) exploits Drummond/Bona’s limited minutes; cleared in 8/10 home starts, matchup favors 10.2 projection.
Player Prop #3: Tyrese Maxey / Over Points / 29.5 at -104 / 60% / Maxey’s 30.4 PPG lead role amplifies without Embiid/George (45% usage); averaged 32 vs. Cavs last season, but Cleveland’s pace caps at 98 possessions for slight edge.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public heavily favors Cavaliers on the spread and moneyline, aligning with sharp action as lines moved further in Cleveland’s direction amid 76ers’ key injuries—optimal to follow rather than fade, with math confirming EV on home side. Simulations highlight a controlled, lower-scoring affair due to both teams’ top-8 defensive ratings and Philly’s fatigue, projecting under as the value total play. No contrarian edge emerges, as hype around Maxey doesn’t overcome Cleveland’s home-court metrics (7.2 net rating).

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Cleveland Cavaliers] — 72% sim win probability and aligned market action make this the highest-EV side against injury-riddled 76ers.

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