New York Knicks vs Minnesota Timberwolves

League: NBA | Date: 2025-11-05 07:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-05 05:38 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [New York Knicks / Spread / -3 at -110 / 55% / Knicks’ home dominance and defensive rating edge over Wolves’ road struggles support covering the line, aligned with simulation cover probability.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 227.5 at -110 / 53% / Both teams’ elite defenses limit pace and efficiency, with recent games averaging under the line and sharp money pushing total lower despite public over bets.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [New York Knicks / Moneyline / -148 / 58% / Knicks’ full-strength roster and home-court advantage outweigh Wolves’ injury concerns, yielding positive EV on the favorite.]

New York Knicks vs Minnesota Timberwolves on 2025-11-05

Game Times

ET: 7:30 PM
CT: 6:30 PM
MT: 5:30 PM
PT: 4:30 PM
AKT: 3:30 PM
HST: 1:30 PM

💸 Public Bets

[70% / 30%]

💰 Money Distribution

[55% / 45%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Knicks -2.5 with total 231.5; moved to -3 despite moderate public action on home side, while total dropped 4 points to 227.5 on sharp under money, indicating professional resistance to public over bets.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+2.5% on Knicks spread; simulation and recent form converge with line stability, while under total offers +1.8% EV from defensive matchups and injury impacts reducing scoring.]

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New York Knicks | 58% |
| Win % for Minnesota Timberwolves | 40% |
| Spread Cover % for New York Knicks | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 47% / Under: 53% |
| Average Total Points | 226.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8, +12] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Jalen Brunson / Over Points / 27.5 at -121 / 65% / Brunson’s 28.2 PPG average in home games exploits Wolves’ perimeter defense weaknesses, hitting over in 7 of last 10.
Player Prop #2: Anthony Edwards / Over Assists / 3.5 at -164 / 70% / Edwards’ increased playmaking (4.1 APG recently) against Knicks’ aggressive traps boosts assist opportunities, clearing line in 8 straight.
Player Prop #3: Karl-Anthony Towns / Over Rebounds / 10.5 at -124 / 60% / Towns grabs 11.4 RPG vs. smaller frontcourts like Wolves’, with Knicks’ pace favoring second-chance boards in low-total game.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Knicks on the spread and over on total, aligning with money percentages but diverging on the total where sharp action has driven the line down. Following the public on the Knicks side is optimal given home metrics and simulation edges, while fading the over provides value amid defensive strengths from both teams. Overall scoring outlook leans low, with combined offensive ratings suggesting under 228 points based on current-season pace and rebounding battles.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with New York Knicks — simulation win probability and home form confirm the mathematical edge on the favorite.

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