South Florida Bulls vs UTSA Roadrunners

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-06 07:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-06 05:25 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 South Florida Bulls / Spread / -13.5 at -110 / 58% / South Florida’s strong home-field advantage and superior SP+ ratings in the current 2025 season support covering the spread, with recent form showing consistent explosive plays against similar defenses.
💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 67.5 at -110 / 54% / Both teams rank high in yards per play and points scored this season, with UTSA’s recent games pushing totals over due to offensive tempo, despite defensive vulnerabilities.
💰 Best Bet #3 South Florida Bulls / Moneyline / -600 / 75% / Dominant win probability driven by Byrum Brown’s efficiency and UTSA’s road struggles in 2025, making the favorite a solid play despite the juice.

🏈 Matchup: South Florida Bulls vs UTSA Roadrunners on 2025-11-06

Game Times

ET: 7:30 PM
CT: 6:30 PM
MT: 5:30 PM
PT: 4:30 PM
AKT: 3:30 PM
HST: 1:30 PM

💸 Public Bets

70% / 30%

💰 Money Distribution

55% / 45%

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at -12.5 for South Florida and moved to -13.5 to -14 across books like DraftKings and Caesars, with slight steam toward the favorite despite some money on UTSA as the underdog.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on South Florida spread / The implied probability from odds (around 55% for cover) undervalues the 58% simulation edge, supported by current season metrics like South Florida’s 72.7 power rating versus UTSA’s 61.7.

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for South Florida Bulls | 75% |
| Win % for UTSA Roadrunners | 25% |
| Spread Cover % for South Florida Bulls | 58% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 54% / Under: 46% |
| Average Total Points | 68.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [8, 22] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors South Florida, aligning with sharp money indicators from line movement and power ratings, making a follow strategy optimal rather than fading. Both offenses average over 34 points per game in the 2025 season, pointing to a high-scoring affair likely exceeding the total. Contextual factors like no major injuries reported support the favorite’s edge without contrarian value.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with South Florida — mathematical probability favors the home team based on form and simulation convergence.

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