Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Navy Midshipmen

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-08 07:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-08 05:31 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Notre Dame Fighting Irish / Spread / -28 at -110 / 55% / Notre Dame’s superior SP+ rating and havoc rate against the run exploit Navy’s option offense, with simulation showing 55% cover probability despite public heavy action.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 55.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams’ defenses rank top-30 in yards per play allowed, recent games averaging under 52 points combined, and weather forecast suggesting rain to limit scoring.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Notre Dame Fighting Irish / Moneyline / -5000 / 95% / Overwhelming talent disparity and home-field advantage yield 95.5% win probability in simulations, aligning with sharp consensus.]

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Navy Midshipmen on 2025-11-08

Game Times

ET: 7:30 PM
CT: 6:30 PM
MT: 5:30 PM
PT: 4:30 PM
AKT: 3:30 PM
HST: 1:30 PM

💸 Public Bets

[92% / 8%]

💰 Money Distribution

[78% / 22%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at -27.5 and moved to -28 across major books, with slight steam toward Notre Dame despite heavy public betting on the favorite, indicating some sharp support.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Notre Dame spread / Implied probability of 52.4% vs. estimated true probability of 55.7% based on FPI ratings, recent form, and injury adjustments favoring the Irish.]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 95.5% |
| Win % for Navy Midshipmen | 3.5% |
| Spread Cover % for Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 55.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 45.0% / Under: 55.0% |
| Average Total Points/Runs/Goals | 52.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [10, 60] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Riley Leonard / Over Passing Yards / 180.5 / -110 / 72% / Leonard’s 68% completion rate and 7.2 yards per attempt in recent starts, facing Navy’s secondary allowing 220+ passing yards in 4 of last 6 games, support clearing this line.
Player Prop #2: Blake Horvath / Over Rushing Yards / 75.5 / -115 / 68% / Navy’s QB leads the triple option with 85 yards per game average, and Notre Dame’s run defense has allowed 120+ rushing yards to mobile QBs this season despite overall strength.
Player Prop #3: Jeremiyah Love / Over Rushing Touchdowns / 0.5 / -120 / 75% / Love’s 6.1 yards per carry and red-zone usage (scoring in 5 of 8 games) align with Navy’s poor red-zone defense, ranking bottom-20 in opponent TD% allowed.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Notre Dame across spreads and moneylines, aligning with sharp money as indicated by stable line movement and consensus across books. Following the public is optimal here, given the mathematical edge from superior metrics like explosive play rate and turnover margin. The game outlook points to a controlled, lower-scoring affair under 55.5, with Notre Dame’s defense stifling Navy’s ground game while the Irish offense manages efficiently without overextending.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Notre Dame Fighting Irish] — Overwhelming data convergence supports the favorite’s dominance for the highest win probability.

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