Washington Wizards vs Cleveland Cavaliers

League: NBA | Date: 2025-11-07 07:10 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-07 05:44 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Cleveland Cavaliers / Spread / -13.5 at -110 / 68% / Simulation shows Cavs covering in 68% of runs, supported by Wizards’ poor defensive rating (118.2 allowed per 100 possessions) and Cavs’ efficient offense (116.5 ORtg) against weak interiors, with line stable amid injuries.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 240.5 at -110 / 54% / Both teams play at high pace (Wizards 102.1, Cavs 99.8 possessions per game), recent games averaging 245 combined points, and simulation projects 241.2 total with injuries not severely impacting scoring output.

💰 Best Bet #3 Cleveland Cavaliers / Moneyline / -800 / 82% / Cavs dominate series (12 straight wins) and hold 82% win probability in sim, bolstered by home-like road efficiency and Wizards’ 2-7 start, offering value despite juice.

Matchup: Washington Wizards vs Cleveland Cavaliers on 2025-11-07

Game Times

ET: 7:10 PM
CT: 6:10 PM
MT: 5:10 PM
PT: 4:10 PM
AKT: 3:10 PM
HST: 1:10 PM

💸 Public Bets
20% / 80%

💰 Money Distribution
30% / 70%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Opened at -12 for Cavs, moved to -13.5 despite heavy public action, signaling sharp money on Cleveland amid stable total at 240.5.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% on Cavs spread; implied prob 55% vs. estimated true 68% from sim and metrics like Cavs’ +15.2 net rating vs. Wizards’ bottom-5 defense.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Washington Wizards | 18% |
| Win % for Cleveland Cavaliers | 82% |
| Spread Cover % for Washington Wizards | 32% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 54% / Under: 46% |
| Average Total Points/Runs/Goals | 241.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-28, -5] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Donovan Mitchell / Over Points / 26.5 at -110 / 75% / Mitchell averages 28.4 PPG post-hamstring return, exceeding line in 7/9 games; Wizards allow 25.2 PPG to SGs with weak perimeter D (38% 3P defense).
Player Prop #2: Evan Mobley / Over Rebounds / 9.5 at -120 / 70% / Mobley grabs 10.2 RPG vs. bottom-10 rebounding teams like Wizards (42.1 DR%), hitting over in 6/8 matchups; Allen questionable boosts usage.
Player Prop #3: Alex Sarr / Over Points / 16.5 at -118 / 65% / Sarr scores 17.8 PPG at home, exploiting Cavs’ injured frontcourt (Garland/Strus out); over in 70% of games vs. top-10 offenses allowing 115+ to bigs.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public heavily favors Cleveland at 80%, aligning with money distribution (70% on Cavs) and sharp action via line movement to -13.5, confirming no fade opportunity as metrics and sim converge on Cavs dominance. Follow the public on Cleveland, as EV edges exist without contrarian signals. Overall game projects moderately high-scoring at 241.2 points, driven by both teams’ fast pace and Wizards’ defensive vulnerabilities despite Cavs injuries.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Cleveland — simulation and market consensus point to strong Cavs edge in win and cover probability.

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