Detroit Red Wings vs New York Rangers

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-07 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-07 05:16 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 New York Rangers +1.5 at -250 / 65% / Rangers’ defensive structure and goaltending edge limit DET’s blowout potential in a projected close contest, with DET covering only 35% against similar opponents this season.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under 6 at -110 / 58% / Both teams average under 5.5 goals in recent games, with strong penalty kills and low xGA rates favoring a low-scoring affair at Little Caesars Arena.

💰 Best Bet #3 Detroit Red Wings Moneyline at -125 / 55% / Home-ice advantage and superior 9-5 record give DET the edge over slumping NYR, despite public lean.

Detroit Red Wings vs New York Rangers on 2025-11-07

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

Detroit Red Wings 62% / New York Rangers 38%

💰 Money Distribution

Detroit Red Wings 58% / New York Rangers 42%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

ML opened at DET -110, moved to -125 amid 60% public tickets on home side; spread steady at NYR +1.5 (-245 avg); total dipped from 6.5 to 6 on sharp under action.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on NYR +1.5, driven by RLM against public and Rangers’ 68% ATS cover rate as road dogs this season.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Detroit Red Wings | 54% |
| Win % for New York Rangers | 46% |
| Spread Cover % for Detroit Red Wings | 36% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.7 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2, +3] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Alex DeBrincat / Over 2.5 Shots on Goal / 2.5 at -215 / 72% / DeBrincat averages 3.4 SOG per game this season, exploiting NYR’s middling shot suppression (12% above league avg vs right-wingers).
Player Prop #2: Dylan Larkin / Over 0.5 Points / 0.5 at -225 / 68% / Larkin’s 1.2 points per game and PP usage (25% of team opps) align with DET’s high-danger chances against NYR’s 82% PK.
Player Prop #3: Artemi Panarin / Anytime Goal Scorer / Yes at +163 / 62% / Panarin’s 18% shooting rate and 3.1 SOG/game hit 65% vs DET-like defenses, boosted by Rangers’ road xGF edge.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans DET on home hype, aligning with money flow and no clear sharp resistance, making follow optimal over fade. Trocheck’s injury weakens NYR’s center depth, but Quick’s .915 SV% stabilizes; DET’s rest advantage supports ML value. Game projects low-scoring with both teams under 3 goals allowed in 70% of recent outings, favoring under on defensive metrics like Corsi (DET 51%, NYR 49%).

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Detroit Red Wings — home form and metrics confirm 54% win probability.

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