Vegas Golden Knights vs Anaheim Ducks

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-08 10:10 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-08 05:20 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Anaheim Ducks / Spread / +1.5 at -135 / 68% / Ducks’ surprising 9-3-1 start and high-powered offense (averaging 3.8 goals per game) against Vegas’ recent defensive lapses (allowing 4+ in last two) and key injuries to Hill and Stone make covering the puck line likely despite road trip.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 6.5 at -125 / 62% / Both teams trending high-scoring (Ducks 7-5 win last game, Vegas 3-6 loss prior) with xG models projecting 6.8 combined goals; Vegas home games average 7.2 total this season, favoring the over amid Ducks’ potent attack and Vegas’ depleted backline.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Vegas Golden Knights / Moneyline / -220 / 58% / Home-ice advantage at T-Mobile Arena (Vegas 5-1-1 there) edges out despite injuries, as Eichel and Hertl drive offense against Ducks’ road vulnerabilities (2-2-1 away).]

Vegas Golden Knights vs Anaheim Ducks on 2025-11-08

Game Times

ET: 10:10 PM
CT: 9:10 PM
MT: 8:10 PM
PT: 7:10 PM
AKT: 6:10 PM
HST: 4:10 PM

💸 Public Bets

[Vegas 72% / Anaheim 28%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Vegas 58% / Anaheim 42%]

💹 Market Alignment

Divergent

📉 Line Movement

Vegas ML tightened from -200 to -220 with heavy public action, but spread held steady at -1.5 (+115 to +120 for Knights) indicating sharp money on Ducks +1.5 amid injury news; total steady at 6.5 with slight lean to over on FanDuel (-128).

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+4.2% on Ducks +1.5 (implied 57% vs. model 65% cover probability based on Ducks’ Corsi dominance at 52.4% and Vegas’ xGA inflation without Stone/Hill); contrarian value as public piles on Vegas despite RLM favoring underdog.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Vegas Golden Knights | 61% |
| Win % for Anaheim Ducks | 39% |
| Spread Cover % for Vegas Golden Knights | 44% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 54% / Under: 46% |
| Average Total Points/Runs/Goals | 6.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2, +3] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Jack Eichel / Over Shots on Goal / 3.5 at -110 / 72% / Eichel averaging 3.8 SOG in home games with 28% usage rate; Ducks’ PK allows 32 shots per game, supporting over in high-pace matchup.
Player Prop #2: Troy Terry / Over Shots on Goal / 2.5 at -182 / 75% / Terry’s 2.9 SOG average vs. Vegas’ league-worst high-danger defense (12.2% shooting allowed); recent form shows 3+ in 4 of last 5, favoring over against depleted Knights blueline.
Player Prop #3: Tomas Hertl / Anytime Goal Scorer / Yes at +175 / 58% / Hertl’s 18% shooting efficiency and top-line role yield 0.45 goals per game; Ducks concede 3.1 goals away, with Hertl scoring in 6 of 11 home tilts this season.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public heavily favors Vegas (72%) aligning with money (58%), but divergent sharp action on Ducks +1.5 via RLM suggests fading the favorite given Vegas’ injuries (Hill out, Stone sidelined) and Ducks’ hot streak (7-1 in last 8). Math supports contrarian play on Anaheim covering, as their xGF (3.2 per 60) exploits Vegas’ xGA (2.9). Game outlook leans high-scoring with both offenses clicking (combined 6.8 goals average) but Vegas defense vulnerable without key pieces.

🔮 Recommended Play

Fade the public on Anaheim Ducks +1.5 — Ducks’ form and Vegas injuries create clear mathematical edge despite public sentiment.

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