New Mexico Lobos vs UT-Arlington Mavericks

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-08 04:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-08 07:58 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [New Mexico Lobos / Spread / -12.5 at -115 / 60% / New Mexico’s home advantage and recent dominant win (76-54) support covering the spread, with simulation showing 58% cover rate against a weaker UT-Arlington.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 149.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams’ early-season defensive metrics and New Mexico’s low-scoring recent game indicate a total below the line, simulation avg at 140 points.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [New Mexico Lobos / Moneyline / -850 / 82% / Strong favoritism backed by superior efficiency ratings and home court, simulation win probability at 82%.]

New Mexico Lobos vs UT-Arlington Mavericks on 2025-11-08

Game Times

ET: 4:00 PM
CT: 3:00 PM
MT: 2:00 PM
PT: 1:00 PM
AKT: 12:00 PM
HST: 10:00 AM

💸 Public Bets

[75% / 25%]

💰 Money Distribution

[65% / 35%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

[Stable; opened at -12.5 and held steady across books like DraftKings and BetMGM, no significant shifts as of 2025-11-08.]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+2.5% on New Mexico spread; simulation probability exceeds implied odds by 3%, supported by home efficiency edge and UT-Arlington’s early struggles.]

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster verification failure.

🧮 Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New Mexico Lobos | 82% |
| Win % for UT-Arlington Mavericks | 18% |
| Spread Cover % for New Mexico Lobos | 58% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 140 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-5, 30] |

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors New Mexico, aligning with sharp money distribution and line stability, making following the public the optimal approach based on convergent metrics. New Mexico’s adjusted offensive efficiency (around 110) outpaces UT-Arlington’s defensive rating (95+), while both teams show moderate tempo without high-scoring tendencies. Overall game outlook points to a controlled, lower-scoring affair under 149.5, driven by New Mexico’s defensive rebounding strength.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with New Mexico Lobos] — mathematical probability favors the home team covering and winning decisively.

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