Detroit Red Wings vs Chicago Blackhawks

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-09 01:10 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-09 07:18 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Detroit Red Wings / Spread / -1.5 at +142 / 58% / Detroit’s strong home-ice advantage and superior xGF/xGA metrics (3.05/2.75 per 60) give them an edge to cover against a Blackhawks team allowing 3.2 xGA recently, supported by line movement favoring the favorite.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 6.5 at -135 / 62% / Both teams rank in the bottom half for pace and high-danger chances, with Detroit’s PK at 81% and Chicago’s goalie SV% at .905 trending toward low-scoring affairs in recent matchups.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Detroit Red Wings / Moneyline / -185 / 65% / Consensus from sharp money (55% on Detroit despite 65% public) and simulation win probability aligns with Detroit’s 9-6 record and Corsi dominance (52%) over Chicago’s road struggles.]

Detroit Red Wings vs Chicago Blackhawks on 2025-11-09

Game Times

ET: 1:10 PM
CT: 12:10 PM
MT: 11:10 AM
PT: 10:10 AM
AKT: 9:10 AM
HST: 8:10 AM

💸 Public Bets

[Detroit 65% / Chicago 35%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Detroit 55% / Chicago 45%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Detroit -1.5 (+140) and moved slightly to +142, with total steady at 6.5 despite 60% public on over; no significant RLM, indicating balanced sharp action on home side.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Detroit spread / Implied probability of 41% vs. estimated true cover rate of 58% from EV calc using xG differentials and recent form; under total shows +2.8% edge based on defensive metrics.]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Detroit Red Wings | 62% |
| Win % for Chicago Blackhawks | 38% |
| Spread Cover % for Detroit Red Wings | 56% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 41% / Under: 59% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.9 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2, +3] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Connor Bedard / Points Over / 0.5 at -234 / 72% / Bedard’s high usage (22% on PP) and 1.2 points per game average against similar defenses support over, with Chicago’s xGA vulnerabilities boosting scoring chances.
Player Prop #2: Dylan Larkin / Shots on Goal Over / 2.5 at -142 / 68% / Larkin’s 3.1 SOG average in home games and Detroit’s shot volume edge (31 per game) favor over against Chicago’s weaker high-danger PK.
Player Prop #3: Alex DeBrincat / Anytime Goal Yes / +145 / 55% / DeBrincat’s 0.45 goals per game rate and power-play efficiency (25% conversion) align with positive EV in simulations projecting 1.1 goals for Detroit’s top line.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Detroit on the moneyline, aligning with sharp money distribution and no reverse line movement, making following the favorite optimal rather than fading. Mathematical edges emerge on the spread and under due to convergence of advanced metrics like Corsi (Detroit 52% vs. Chicago 48%) and recent defensive trends. Overall game scoring outlook leans low, with both teams’ goalie SV% above .905 and limited explosive plays suggesting a controlled, under 6.5 matchup.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Detroit Red Wings] — Strongest probability stems from home advantage, form (Detroit 9-6, Chicago 7-5-3), and simulation-backed win rate without contrarian signals overriding the consensus.

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