Minnesota Wild vs Calgary Flames

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-09 08:10 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-09 05:12 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Calgary Flames / Spread / +1.5 at -185 / 55% / Simulation indicates Wild covers -1.5 only 45% of the time, suggesting Flames keep it within one goal given their defensive structure and Wild’s recent road fatigue.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 6.5 at -118 / 52% / Average simulated goals at 5.5, with both teams ranking mid-pack in xGA per 60 and Flames allowing low high-danger chances at home.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Minnesota Wild / Moneyline / -150 / 63% / Wild’s superior xGF and home-ice edge yield 62.5% win probability, supported by Kaprizov’s form against Flames PK.]

Minnesota Wild vs Calgary Flames on 2025-11-09

Game Times
ET: 8:10 PM
CT: 7:10 PM
MT: 6:10 PM
PT: 5:10 PM
AKT: 4:10 PM
HST: 2:10 PM

💸 Public Bets
[Minnesota Wild 68% / Calgary Flames 32%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Minnesota Wild 58% / Calgary Flames 42%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Wild -145 ML and held steady at -150 despite moderate public action on home team; total dipped slightly from 6.5 even to Under-favored -118 on BetRivers.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+2.5% on Wild ML / Implied probability of -150 (60%) undervalues simulation’s 62.5% win rate, with positive EV from line stability and Flames’ poor 4-10-2 record.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Minnesota Wild | 62.5% |
| Win % for Calgary Flames | 23.5% |
| Spread Cover % for Minnesota Wild | 45.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points/Runs/Goals | 5.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2, 4] |

Top 3 Player Props
– Player Prop #1: Kirill Kaprizov / Over Shots on Goal / 3.5 at +135 / 72% / Kaprizov averages 4.1 SOG in home games this season, exploiting Flames’ weak PK (78.2%) with high-danger shots; matchup favors volume.
– Player Prop #2: Matt Boldy / Over Points / 0.5 at -188 / 68% / Boldy hits points in 65% of recent outings, thriving on Wild’s top line with Eriksson Ek; Flames allow 3.2 xGA/60 to forwards.
– Player Prop #3: Nazem Kadri / Over Shots on Goal / 2.5 at -175 / 70% / Kadri’s 3.0 SOG average vs. Central teams aligns with Wild’s mid-tier shot suppression; consistent usage on top line boosts likelihood.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the Wild at 68%, aligning with sharp money (58%) and stable lines, making a follow strategy optimal rather than fading. Contextual factors like Wild’s home advantage and Flames’ road struggles (2-6 away) support the favorite without contrarian value. Overall scoring outlook leans low, with both defenses limiting high-danger chances and average simulated total of 5.5 goals favoring Under.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Minnesota Wild] — simulation and market consensus point to home win as highest probability outcome.

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