James Madison Dukes vs Coppin St Eagles

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-09 01:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-09 07:27 AM EST

James Madison Dukes vs Coppin St Eagles on 2025-11-09

💰 Best Bet #1 James Madison Dukes / Spread / -21.5 at -102 / 65% / James Madison’s superior adjusted offensive efficiency (115) overwhelms Coppin State’s weak defense (112 allowed), with home advantage boosting cover probability in simulations.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 146.5 at -112 / 55% / Combined tempo around 70 possessions and recent trends show both teams averaging over 140 points in matchups, favoring a high-scoring affair despite defensive metrics.

💰 Best Bet #3 James Madison Dukes / Moneyline / -3600 / 97% / Overwhelming favoritism backed by 95% simulated win rate, given Coppin State’s poor early-season form and JMU’s strong home record.

Game Times

ET: 1:00 PM
CT: 12:00 PM
MT: 11:00 AM
PT: 10:00 AM
AKT: 9:00 AM
HST: 7:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
James Madison 85% / Coppin St 15%

💰 Money Distribution
James Madison 70% / Coppin St 30%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Line stable at -21 across major books, opening at -20.5 with minimal shift despite public leaning toward favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on James Madison spread; implied probability undervalues JMU’s 65% cover rate from efficiency matchups and home edge.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for James Madison Dukes | 95.0% |
| Win % for Coppin St Eagles | 5.0% |
| Spread Cover % for James Madison Dukes | 60.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Points | 148.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [15.0, 35.0] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors James Madison, aligning with sharp money indicators and market consensus, making following the favorite optimal rather than fading. Coppin State’s defensive inefficiencies (112 adj def eff) against JMU’s potent offense suggest a comfortable win, though the total leans slightly over due to tempo-driven possessions. Overall game scoring outlook points to a moderate-paced contest exceeding 146.5 points based on offensive metrics and early-season trends.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with James Madison — mathematical probability strongly supports the favorite covering and winning decisively.

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