Bowling Green Falcons vs Le Moyne Dolphins

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-09 02:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-09 07:28 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Bowling Green Falcons / Spread / -13.5 at -105 / 75% / Bowling Green leverages home-court dominance in early season blowout, while Le Moyne shows road vulnerabilities in loss to Xavier.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 156.5 at -110 / 60% / Combined defensive efficiencies and low-possession tempo suggest controlled scoring, aligning with Le Moyne’s recent underperformance.
💰 Best Bet #3 Bowling Green Falcons / Moneyline / -1200 / 85% / Falcons’ superior adjusted offensive rating overwhelms Dolphins’ transitional defense.

Bowling Green Falcons vs Le Moyne Dolphins on 2025-11-09

Game Times

ET: 2:00 PM
CT: 1:00 PM
MT: 12:00 PM
PT: 11:00 AM
AKT: 10:00 AM
HST: 8:00 AM

💸 Public Bets

[78% / 22%]

💰 Money Distribution

[68% / 32%]

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Stable at -13.5 from opening -13, with slight public pressure on favorite but no sharp counteraction.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+2.8% on Bowling Green spread; implied probability undervalues Falcons’ 88% win simulation against Le Moyne’s limited early-season metrics.

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Bowling Green, aligning with sharp money indicators and early-season form where the Falcons dominate at home. Following the public is optimal here, as reverse line movement is absent and EV supports the favorite without overvaluation. Overall game scoring outlook points to a moderate total, with both teams’ defensive rebounding rates limiting second-chance opportunities.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Bowling Green — mathematical projections confirm high probability of victory and cover based on efficiency edges.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Bowling Green Falcons | 88.0% |
| Win % for Le Moyne Dolphins | 12.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Bowling Green Falcons | 55.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.0% / Under: 52.0% |
| Average Total Points | 155.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [10.2, 39.8] |

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