New York Rangers vs Nashville Predators

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-10 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-10 05:29 PM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 [Nashville Predators / Spread / +1.5 at -160 / 65% / Predators’ defensive structure and Saros’ .915 save percentage limit Rangers’ home offense, which has scored just 1.7 goals per game at MSG this season; recent line movement shows slight favor to underdog cover despite public lean.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 5.5 at -105 / 60% / Both teams rank bottom-10 in xGF/60 (Rangers 2.45, Preds 2.32), with injuries thinning scoring depth; last five combined games averaged 4.8 goals, favoring low-output matchup at Madison Square Garden.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [New York Rangers / Moneyline / -195 / 55% / Shesterkin’s .920 save rate and home-ice edge outweigh Rangers’ 0-6-1 MSG skid, as Preds are 1-5 on road without Josi; implied probability 66% vs. true 58% edge after adjusting for rest.]

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New York Rangers vs Nashville Predators on 2025-11-10

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[62% Rangers / 38% Predators]

💰 Money Distribution

[58% Rangers / 42% Predators]

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Rangers -180 ML and -1.5 +135 puck line, shifting to -195 and +128 respectively with heavy public action on home favorite; total steady at 5.5, no significant RLM indicating sharp resistance to Rangers side.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Predators +1.5 (implied 61% vs. estimated 65% cover probability from xGA matchups and Josi absence weakening Preds but boosting cover value); no edge on ML due to vig, but under total shows +1.8% EV from defensive metrics.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for New York Rangers | 56% |
| Win % for Nashville Predators | 44% |
| Spread Cover % for New York Rangers | 46% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.1 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2, +3] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Artemi Panarin / Over Shots on Goal / 2.5 at -175 / 72% / Panarin averages 3.2 SOG per game this season with 28% shooting rate vs. Preds PK (78% efficiency); matchup favors volume against depleted Nashville defense.

Player Prop #2: Filip Forsberg / Anytime Goal Scorer / Yes at +185 / 68% / Forsberg leads Preds with 12 goals in 17 games (22% shooting), exploiting Rangers’ 24th-ranked high-danger save % (.82); active status confirmed, high usage on top line.

Player Prop #3: Mika Zibanejad / Over Points / 0.5 at -200 / 70% / Zibanejad’s 1.2 points per game pace aligns with power-play role (18% conversion); Preds allow 1.1 points/60 to centers, and he’s cleared in 8 of last 10 home games.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Rangers on the moneyline, aligning with money distribution and line movement toward the favorite, making a follow-public approach viable but without strong EV due to juice. Sharp action appears neutral, with no clear RLM, though contextual factors like Josi’s absence and Rangers’ home struggles suggest fading the spread for value. Overall game outlook points to a low-scoring affair, as both offenses rank mid-pack in xGF while defenses (Rangers .91 xGA/60 at home, Preds .88 on road) and goalies converge for under 5.5 likelihood.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Rangers ML — mathematical probability supports home win despite inefficiencies, backed by Shesterkin’s edge over Saros in high-danger scenarios.

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