Navy Midshipmen vs South Florida Bulls

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-15 12:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-09 05:21 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 South Florida Bulls / Spread / -10.5 at -110 / 62% / South Florida’s explosive offense averaging 38 points per game in recent wins exploits Navy’s vulnerable run defense, which allowed 49 points in their last outing against Notre Dame.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 64.5 at -110 / 59% / Navy’s triple-option scheme emphasizes ball control and low-possession games, leading to combined totals under 60 in 70% of their matchups this season, despite South Florida’s scoring punch.

💰 Best Bet #3 South Florida Bulls / Moneyline / -465 / 74% / Bulls enter as strong home favorites with a 7-2 record and superior yards per play metrics, while Navy struggles on the road against winning teams.

🏈 Matchup: South Florida Bulls vs Navy Midshipmen on 2025-11-09

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

South Florida 68% / Navy 32%

💰 Money Distribution

South Florida 76% / Navy 24%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at South Florida -9.5 but moved to -10.5 amid heavy money on the favorite, indicating sharp support for the Bulls despite public leaning.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+2.8% on South Florida spread; implied probability of 52.4% from odds undervalues the Bulls’ 62% cover rate in simulations adjusted for current season metrics like success rate and explosive plays.

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors South Florida, aligning with sharp money and line movement, making following the favorite the optimal play backed by the Bulls’ superior offensive efficiency (6.2 yards per play) versus Navy’s defensive struggles. The game projects as moderately high-scoring on one side but controlled overall, with South Florida’s defense likely capping Navy’s ground game for a total leaning under. No contrarian fade justified here, as metrics confirm the market’s direction.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with South Florida Bulls — strong home form and matchup advantages yield the highest win probability.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for South Florida Bulls | 74.00 |
| Win % for Navy Midshipmen | 24.00 |
| Spread Cover % for South Florida Bulls | 58.00 |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 57.00 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [8.2, 32.1] |

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