Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers

League: NFL | Date: 2025-11-16 01:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-16 07:07 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Los Angeles Chargers / Spread / -3 at -110 / 55% / Chargers hold a strong edge with their 7-3 record against the Jaguars’ 5-4, bolstered by superior defensive EPA and key Jaguars offensive line injuries limiting protection for Lawrence.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 43.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams rank in the top-10 for defensive efficiency this season, with recent games trending low-scoring (Jaguars allowing 20.2 PPG, Chargers 18.5 PPG), and weather forecasts suggesting mild conditions without wind impact.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Los Angeles Chargers / Moneyline / -150 / 56% / Simulation projects a 56% win probability for the Chargers, supported by Justin Herbert’s high CPOE against a Jaguars secondary hampered by injuries.]

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers on 2025-11-16

Game Times

ET: 1:00 PM
CT: 12:00 PM
MT: 11:00 AM
PT: 10:00 AM
AKT: 9:00 AM
HST: 8:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
[Chargers 65% / Jaguars 35%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Chargers 70% / Jaguars 30%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Chargers -2.5 and moved to -3 amid heavy money on the Chargers, indicating sharp support despite public leaning.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Chargers spread / Consensus from line movement and simulation shows value in the favorite, with public alignment not eroding the edge given Chargers’ superior metrics in success rate and turnover margin.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Jacksonville Jaguars | 42% |
| Win % for Los Angeles Chargers | 56% |
| Spread Cover % for Jacksonville Jaguars | 48% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points/Runs/Goals | 43.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-20, 15] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Justin Herbert / Over 250.5 Passing Yards / -110 / 70% / Herbert averages 268 passing yards per game this season with a 68% completion rate; Jaguars’ secondary is vulnerable due to injuries like Montaric Brown out, projecting high volume against a pass-funnel defense allowing 220+ yards recently.
Player Prop #2: Travis Etienne Jr. / Under 70.5 Rushing Yards / -110 / 65% / Etienne faces the Chargers’ top-5 run defense (3.8 YPC allowed), and with offensive line issues (Harrison out), his efficiency drops to 4.1 YPC on the road; recent games show under in 4 of last 6.
Player Prop #3: Ladd McConkey / Over 60.5 Receiving Yards / -110 / 68% / McConkey leads Chargers in targets (8.2 per game) with a 75% catch rate; Jaguars’ man coverage struggles without key DBs, and his YAC ability exploits soft zones, hitting over in 70% of matchups vs similar defenses.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the Chargers, aligning with sharp money as evidenced by the line movement to -3, making a follow strategy optimal rather than fading. The Jaguars’ injuries to their offensive line and secondary weaken their matchup against a Chargers defense excelling in EPA per play, while both offenses face tough resistance leading to a projected low-scoring affair under the total. Overall, the game outlook points to a defensive battle with the Chargers’ rest advantage and coaching tendencies on aggressive 4th downs tipping the scales.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Los Angeles Chargers / Mathematical probability favors their win at 56%, confirmed by EV-positive spread and consensus indicators.]

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