Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs

League: NFL | Date: 2025-11-16 04:25 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-16 07:09 AM EST

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs on 2025-11-16

💰 Best Bet #1 [Denver Broncos / Spread / -3.5 at -110 / 55% / Broncos riding seven-game win streak with strong home defense; Chiefs hampered by key injuries like Pacheco out, supporting cover despite rivalry hype]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 47 at -110 / 52% / Both teams’ defenses rank top-10 in points allowed per game this season; recent trends show low-scoring AFC West clashes, with injuries thinning offenses]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Denver Broncos / Moneyline / -162 / 58% / Home-field edge and superior 8-2 record vs. Chiefs’ 5-4 slump give clear probability edge, even at juice]

Game Times

ET: 4:25 PM
CT: 3:25 PM
MT: 2:25 PM
PT: 1:25 PM
AKT: 12:25 PM
HST: 10:25 AM

💸 Public Bets

[35% / 65%]

💰 Money Distribution

[60% / 40%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Broncos -2.5 and moved to -3.5 despite 65% public on Chiefs, indicating sharp action on Denver amid injury updates

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3% on Broncos spread; public overreaction to Chiefs’ name value creates value, confirmed by line movement and defensive metrics convergence]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Denver Broncos | 55.0% |
| Win % for Kansas City Chiefs | 45.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Denver Broncos | 52.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 48.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-15.2, 18.1] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Travis Kelce / Over 60.5 Receiving Yards / 60.5 at -110 / 65% / Kelce’s 75% hit rate over this line in 2025 vs. Broncos’ depleted secondary (Surtain out); averages 72 yards per game with Mahomes, facing soft zone coverage

Player Prop #2: Bo Nix / Over 1.5 Passing TDs / 1.5 at -120 / 60% / Nix has hit 2+ TDs in 6 of last 8 home starts this season; Chiefs’ pass rush weakened without key edges, allowing 1.8 TD passes per game to QBs

Player Prop #3: Nik Bonitto / Over 0.5 Sacks / 0.5 at -115 / 62% / Bonitto’s 8 sacks in 10 games this year; Mahomes under pressure on 40% of drops vs. Broncos’ front, with Chiefs OL missing starters for protection

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public heavily favors Chiefs due to historical rivalry dominance, but divergent money flow and reverse line movement signal sharp resistance, creating value in fading the crowd on Denver. Math supports following professionals here, as Broncos’ defensive EPA and home splits outweigh Chiefs’ offensive dips from injuries. Overall scoring outlook leans under, with both units allowing under 20 points per game recently in divisional play.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Fade the public on Kansas City Chiefs] — mathematical probability favors Broncos based on form, injuries, and market signals.

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