Ottawa Senators vs Dallas Stars

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-11 07:10 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-11 05:28 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Dallas Stars / +1.5 / -250 at DraftKings / 75% / Dallas shows resilience on the road despite injuries, with simulation indicating a tight contest where they cover the puck line in 75% of scenarios, supported by Ottawa’s missing Tkachuk weakening their offense.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 5.5 at -125 at DraftKings / 52% / Both teams’ defenses have held firm recently, with Stars allowing 2.1 goals per game and Senators 2.4; average simulated total of 5.8 leans slightly under the line amid fatigue and key absences.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Dallas Stars / Moneyline / +102 at DraftKings / 52% / Dallas edges out in win probability at 52% per simulation, offering value as underdogs with strong recent form (9-4-3) against a Senators squad hampered by Tkachuk’s absence.]

Ottawa Senators vs Dallas Stars on 2025-11-11

Game Times
ET: 7:10 PM
CT: 6:10 PM
MT: 5:10 PM
PT: 4:10 PM
AKT: 3:10 PM
HST: 1:10 PM

💸 Public Bets
[62% / 38%]

💰 Money Distribution
[48% / 52%]

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Ottawa -115 ML and has steadied around -120 to -122, with minimal shift on the spread from -1.5 (+210) despite public leaning home; total hovered between 5.5 and 6 without notable action.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.5% on Dallas +1.5, driven by reverse line movement against public favoritism toward Ottawa and simulation convergence showing high cover probability amid Senators’ injury vulnerabilities.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Ottawa Senators | 48% |
| Win % for Dallas Stars | 52% |
| Spread Cover % for Ottawa Senators +1.5 | 75% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2, +1] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Tim Stützle / Over 0.5 Points / 0.5 at -182 / 72% / Stützle leads Ottawa in usage (22+ minutes average) and has points in 8 of last 10 games; Dallas PK at 78% allows edges for top-line production.
Player Prop #2: Jason Robertson / Over 2.5 Shots on Goal / 2.5 at -168 / 68% / Robertson averages 3.2 SOG per game this season, exploiting Ottawa’s defense that yields 31 shots allowed; recent form shows 3+ in 6 of 8.
Player Prop #3: Jake Oettinger / Over 24.5 Saves / 24.5 at -120 / 65% / Ottawa generates 29.5 shots per game, pushing Oettinger (starting goalie) over this line in 70% of starts; Stars’ structure funnels high-volume opportunities.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Ottawa as home favorites, but sharp money flows to Dallas via higher money percentage despite the split, indicating professional resistance to the line. Fading the public aligns with math here, as simulation and injury impacts (Tkachuk out for Senators, Benn/Duchene sidelined for Stars but depth holds) point to a close, low-event game. Overall scoring outlook remains tempered, with both teams’ defensive metrics (xGA/60 under 2.8) favoring the under in a matchup of rested but depleted rosters.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Ottawa — Dallas ML provides the strongest EV in this projected nail-biter.

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