Montréal Canadiens vs Los Angeles Kings

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-11 07:10 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-11 05:29 PM EST

Montréal Canadiens vs Los Angeles Kings on 2025-11-11

Game Times

ET: 7:10 PM
CT: 6:10 PM
MT: 5:10 PM
PT: 4:10 PM
AKT: 3:10 PM
HST: 1:10 PM

💰 Best Bet #1 Montréal Canadiens / +1.5 / -265 / 65% / Canadiens cover in 65% of simulations due to strong home form (10-3-2 record) and Kings’ road struggles (3-4-2 away), with xGA favoring Montreal’s defense against LA’s average offense.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 5.5 at -130 / 52% / Recent trends show high-scoring games for both (Canadiens avg 3.8 GF last 5, Kings 3.2), with combined xGF/60 at 5.9 supporting over despite solid goalies.

💰 Best Bet #3 Los Angeles Kings / Moneyline / -120 / 50% / Kings edge win probability at 50% based on superior overall record (7-5-4) and Kopitar’s presence boosting playmaking, though close matchup.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Montréal Canadiens | 48% |
| Win % for Los Angeles Kings | 50% |
| Spread Cover % for Montréal Canadiens | 65% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52% / Under: 48% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.9 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2, +2] |

💸 Public Bets
[45% / 55%]

💰 Money Distribution
[40% / 60%]

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Line stable at Kings -120 ML and 5.5 total; slight shift to Over from opening 5, with no major RLM despite public on Kings.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3% on Canadiens +1.5; simulation and metrics (Corsi 51% for MTL home) show value against public favoritism toward LA.

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Cole Caufield / Over 0.5 Points / 0.5 at -198 / 75% / Caufield leads Canadiens with 12 points in 15 games, high usage on top line vs Kings’ middling PK (78%), averaging 0.8 points recently.
Player Prop #2: Adrian Kempe / Over 2.5 Shots on Goal / 2.5 at -154 / 70% / Kempe averages 3.1 SOG/game in 2025, elevated vs Montreal’s leaky defense (allows 32 shots/game), hit over in 8/12 road games.
Player Prop #3: Sam Montembeault / Over 24.5 Saves / 24.5 at -120 / 68% / Kings average 31 shots/60, Montembeault faces high volume at home (28 saves avg), over in 70% of starts with .915 SV% supporting workload.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public leans Kings ML at 55%, but money distribution (60% LA) shows some sharp action; however, divergent alignment with RLM favoring Canadiens +1.5 as value play, avoiding overreaction to Kings’ recent win. Math supports fading public here, with simulation confirming close game. Overall scoring outlook trends over 5.5, as both offenses exploit defenses (combined xGF 5.9), tempered by goalies but boosted by power-play edges.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Los Angeles Kings — Canadiens +1.5 offers best mathematical probability with 65% cover rate from metrics and home advantage.

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