Minnesota Wild vs San Jose Sharks

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-11 08:10 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-11 05:33 PM EST

Minnesota Wild vs San Jose Sharks on 2025-11-11

💰 Best Bet #1 [Minnesota Wild / Spread / -1.5 at +115 / 55% / Wild’s strong defensive metrics (xGA/60 of 2.2) and recent shutout form give them a clear edge to cover against a leaky Sharks defense allowing 3.1 goals per game.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 6.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams trend low-scoring in recent outings (Wild 2-0 last game, Sharks averaging 5.7 total goals), with elite goaltending from Gustavsson (.915 SV%) favoring the under.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Minnesota Wild / Moneyline / -210 / 68% / Home-ice advantage and superior xGF (2.8/60) make Wild the clear favorite against a struggling Sharks squad on a three-game win streak but facing fatigue.]

Game Times

ET: 8:10 PM
CT: 7:10 PM
MT: 6:10 PM
PT: 5:10 PM
AKT: 4:10 PM
HST: 2:10 PM

💸 Public Bets
[70% / 30%]

💰 Money Distribution
[65% / 35%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Wild -200 ML and has tightened to -210 with steady action on the favorite; spread stable at -1.5, total steady at 6.5 despite minor under movement.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Wild spread / Implied prob of 52% vs. model estimate of 55.2%, supported by sim convergence and sharp money alignment without RLM signals.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Minnesota Wild | 68.50% |
| Win % for San Jose Sharks | 31.50% |
| Spread Cover % for Minnesota Wild | 55.20% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.30% / Under: 51.70% |
| Average Total Points/Runs/Goals | 5.40 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.00, 4.00] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Kirill Kaprizov / Over 0.5 Points / 0.5 at -200 / 75% / Kaprizov leads Wild in usage (25% rate) with 1.2 points per game average; Sharks’ weak PK (78%) boosts multi-point likelihood against soft matchup.

Player Prop #2: Matt Boldy / Anytime Goal Scorer / Yes at +155 / 60% / Boldy scores 0.45 goals/game on high-volume shots (3.2 SOG); Sharks allow 3.1 goals/game, aligning with his 25% shooting efficiency in recent form.

Player Prop #3: Macklin Celebrini / Over 1.5 Shots on Goal / 1.5 at -186 / 70% / Celebrini averages 2.8 SOG as top-line center; Wild’s aggressive forecheck limits Sharks’ possession (48% Corsi), forcing high shot volume from young star.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the Wild (70% bets), aligning with sharp money (65% handle) and mathematical models showing positive EV on home side due to superior advanced stats like Corsi (52%) and xGF differential. Following the public is optimal here, as no contrarian signals emerge from line stability or injuries (Sharks missing Leddy weakens D-core). Overall game outlook points to moderate scoring, with strong defenses and goaltending capping totals under 6.5 based on season averages (Wild 2.4 GA, Sharks 2.9 xGA/60).

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Minnesota Wild] — Mathematical probability favors the home favorite covering and winning outright.

Highlights unavailable for future events.