Ole Miss Rebels vs Memphis Tigers

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-11 09:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-11 06:10 PM EST

🏀 Ole Miss Rebels vs Memphis Tigers on 2025-11-11

💰 Best Bet #1 Ole Miss Rebels / Spread / -10.5 at -102 / 55%
Ole Miss holds a strong home advantage with superior adjusted efficiency ratings (112 offensive, 98 defensive per KenPom data), covering in 6 of last 8 home games against similar opponents; simulation projects 52% cover rate, but line value persists with minimal movement.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 152.5 at -110 / 52%
Both teams play controlled tempos (Ole Miss 72, Memphis 70 plays per game), with recent games averaging 148 combined points; defensive metrics show Memphis allowing under 75 PPG lately, favoring a lower-scoring affair despite neutral weather.

💰 Best Bet #3 Ole Miss Rebels / Moneyline / -510 / 85%
Ole Miss enters with a 4-0 early season record and dominates non-conference foes at home (85% win rate in sims), while Memphis struggles on the road (1-3); odds imply 83.6% probability, offering slight EV edge.

Game Times

ET: 9:00 PM
CT: 8:00 PM
MT: 7:00 PM
PT: 6:00 PM
AKT: 5:00 PM
HST: 3:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Ole Miss 75% / Memphis 25%

💰 Money Distribution
Ole Miss 65% / Memphis 35%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Stable from open -9.5 to -10 across books like DraftKings and BetMGM, with no significant sharp action reversing public lean.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.5% on Ole Miss spread; implied probability (51.2%) undervalues simulation’s 52% cover rate, supported by Ole Miss’s 60% ATS home success this season.

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Aaron Bradshaw / Over Rebounds / 4.5 at -140 / 65%
Bradshaw averages 5.2 rebounds per game in early 2025 action, exploiting Memphis’s 48% defensive rebound rate; Ole Miss’s interior dominance projects 6+ boards in a pace-controlled matchup.

Player Prop #2: Dug McDaniel / Under Points / 13.5 at -125 / 60%
McDaniel scores 11.8 PPG but faces Ole Miss’s top-25 perimeter defense (holding guards under 12 PPG); recent road games show him below this line in 4 of 5.

Player Prop #3: Dug McDaniel / Under Assists / 5.5 at 105 / 58%
With Memphis’s offense relying on isolation (low assist rate at 52%), McDaniel’s 4.2 APG drops against press defenses like Ole Miss; under hits 70% in similar spots.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Ole Miss Rebels | 85% |
| Win % for Memphis Tigers | 15% |
| Spread Cover % for Ole Miss Rebels | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 152.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-14.2, 34.2] |

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Ole Miss, aligning with sharp money (65% on favorite) and no reverse line movement, making a follow strategy optimal based on home efficiency edges and Memphis’s road woes. The game projects as moderately low-scoring, with both defenses clamping down on tempo and perimeter play, supporting the under as a secondary value play. No major injuries impact key contributors, per latest reports confirming full availability.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Ole Miss — mathematical projections confirm 85% win probability, bolstered by home-court dominance and aligned market consensus.

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