Philadelphia Eagles vs Detroit Lions

League: NFL | Date: 2025-11-16 08:20 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-16 05:01 PM EST

🏈 Philadelphia Eagles vs Detroit Lions on 2025-11-16

💰 Best Bet #1 Eagles / Spread / -2.5 at -110 / 55% / Eagles hold a clear home-field edge with superior EPA metrics and recent form against divisional foes, supported by simulation cover rate.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 46.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams’ defenses rank top-10 in yards allowed per game this season, with wind factors and conservative play-calling tilting toward a lower-scoring affair.

💰 Best Bet #3 Eagles / Moneyline / -146 / 58% / Philadelphia’s offensive efficiency and injury-free lineup provide a mathematical edge over Detroit’s road struggles.

Game Times

ET: 08:20 PM
CT: 07:20 PM
MT: 06:20 PM
PT: 05:20 PM
AKT: 04:20 PM
HST: 02:20 PM

💸 Public Bets

Eagles 62% / Lions 38%

💰 Money Distribution

Eagles 58% / Lions 42%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Eagles -2.5 and has remained stable, with minimal movement despite steady public action on the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3% on Eagles spread, driven by convergence of simulation probabilities, home advantage metrics, and slight reverse line stability indicating value.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Philadelphia Eagles | 58% |
| Win % for Detroit Lions | 42% |
| Spread Cover % for Philadelphia Eagles | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 52 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-4.2, 9.1] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Jalen Hurts / Over Passing Yards / 235.5 at -110 / 72% / Hurts averages 248 yards per game at home this season against similar defenses, with Eagles’ pace and Lions’ secondary vulnerabilities favoring the over.

Player Prop #2: Saquon Barkley / Over Rushing Yards / 72.5 at -110 / 68% / Barkley’s 5.2 yards per carry against Lions-like fronts, combined with Philadelphia’s run-heavy scheme and Detroit’s average rush defense, supports exceeding the line.

Player Prop #3: Amon-Ra St. Brown / Over Receiving Yards / 68.5 at -110 / 70% / St. Brown leads the league in targets per game (10.2), and Eagles’ man coverage weaknesses align with his slot usage for a high-floor reception total translating to yards.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment aligns closely with sharp money on the Eagles, creating a consensus that mathematics supports following rather than fading, bolstered by Philadelphia’s rest advantage and Detroit’s road EPA dip. No significant reverse line movement suggests stable value without contrarian edges. Overall game scoring outlook points to a controlled, under-leaning contest given both teams’ top-quartile defensive efficiencies and moderate offensive paces this season.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Eagles — strongest probability backed by sim win rate and market consensus.

Highlights unavailable.