Air Force Falcons vs LIU Sharks

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-11 04:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-11 07:19 AM EST

Air Force Falcons vs LIU Sharks on 2025-11-11

💰 Best Bet #1 [Air Force Falcons / +2.5 / -120 / 55% / Air Force shows resilience at home despite 0-2 start, with recent defensive adjustments limiting opponents; line movement suggests value against public favoritism toward LIU.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 138.5 at -110 / 60% / Both teams exhibit low-tempo styles early in the season—Air Force averaged 54 points scored in last game, LIU around 70 but against weaker defenses; combined average projects 132 points.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [LIU Sharks / Moneyline / -140 / 58% / LIU’s 1-1 record includes a win over a mid-major, giving edge over winless Air Force; implied probability aligns closely with simulated outcomes.]

Game Times

ET: 4:00 PM
CT: 3:00 PM
MT: 2:00 PM
PT: 1:00 PM
AKT: 12:00 PM
HST: 10:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
[35% / 65%]

💰 Money Distribution
[45% / 55%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement
[Opened at LIU -1.5, moved to -2.5 despite heavy public action on favorite, indicating possible sharp money on Air Force side]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+2.5% on Under; simulation shows 58% probability vs. -110 implied 52.4%, supported by low offensive efficiencies and early-season defensive focus for both squads]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Air Force Falcons | 42% |
| Win % for LIU Sharks | 58% |
| Spread Cover % for Air Force Falcons | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 42% / Under: 58% |
| Average Total Points/Runs/Goals | 132 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-14.2, 10.8] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors LIU as the favorite, but divergent money distribution hints at sharp interest in Air Force covering at home. Following the public on LIU aligns with math for the moneyline, though fading on the spread offers value given Air Force’s home-court metrics. Overall game projects low-scoring affair, with defenses dominating early-season play and totals trending under in similar matchups.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with LIU Sharks — mathematical probability favors their outright win based on form and simulation convergence.

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