Maryland Terrapins vs Alcorn St Braves

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-11 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-11 05:41 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Maryland Terrapins / Spread / -30.5 at -108 / 68% / Maryland’s superior adjusted efficiency (Off 115, Def 90 per KenPom) and home advantage project a 65% cover rate in simulations, with Alcorn’s weak offense (Off 95) unlikely to keep pace.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 150.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams’ defensive metrics suggest a controlled pace; Alcorn allows 115 eff points/100 poss, but Maryland’s elite D caps scoring, with sim avg total at 148 and recent trends showing unders in blowouts.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Maryland Terrapins / Moneyline / -100000 / 98% / Overwhelming favoritism backed by 98% sim win probability, no value in juice but highest certainty in mismatch.]

Maryland Terrapins vs Alcorn St Braves on 2025-11-11

Game Times

ET: 07:00 PM
CT: 06:00 PM
MT: 05:00 PM
PT: 04:00 PM
AKT: 03:00 PM
HST: 01:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[95% / 5%]

💰 Money Distribution

[80% / 20%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line stable at -30.5 across books like DraftKings and FanDuel, with minimal movement despite heavy public action on Maryland.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Maryland spread; sim probabilities exceed implied odds (59% implied vs 65% projected), supported by efficiency gaps and no major injuries.]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Maryland Terrapins | 98% |
| Win % for Alcorn St Braves | 1% |
| Spread Cover % for Maryland Terrapins | 65% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 45% / Under: 55% |
| Average Total Points | 148 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [25, 75] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Maryland, aligning with sharp money and simulation outcomes, making a follow on the favorite optimal rather than fading. No reverse line movement indicates consensus value in the spread. Overall game scoring outlook leans under, as Maryland’s defense suppresses opponents while Alcorn struggles offensively in a lopsided matchup.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Maryland Terrapins — simulations and metrics confirm the highest probability in backing the heavy favorite.

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