Butler Bulldogs vs Chicago St Cougars

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-11 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-11 05:44 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Butler Bulldogs / Spread / -27 at -110 / 78% / Butler’s dominant adjusted offensive efficiency (112.5) overwhelms Chicago State’s weak defense (95.2 allowed), with recent form showing 8-2 ATS in home games; line movement favors the cover despite public heavy on favorite.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 158.5 at -110 / 62% / Both teams play at moderate tempos (Butler 68.2, Chicago State 65.4 possessions), with Chicago State’s low eFG% (48.2%) and Butler’s strong rebounding limiting second-chance points; recent games average 152 combined points.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Butler Bulldogs / Moneyline / -10000 / 99% / Chicago State’s 18-game non-con loss streak and poor turnover margin (-4.2 per game) make an upset improbable, supported by home-field advantage and no key injuries.]

Butler Bulldogs vs Chicago St Cougars on 2025-11-11

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[95% / 5%]

💰 Money Distribution

[92% / 8%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at -28.5 and moved to -26.5/-27 across books, tightening toward Chicago State despite heavy public action on Butler, indicating possible sharp money on the underdog cover but no significant reverse movement.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+4.2% on Butler spread / +3.1% on Under] — Implied probabilities undervalue Butler’s cover rate (78% simulated) against Chicago State’s inefficiency, while total edge stems from defensive metrics converging below the line.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Butler Bulldogs | 99% |
| Win % for Chicago St Cougars | 1% |
| Spread Cover % for Butler Bulldogs | 78% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 38% / Under: 62% |
| Average Total Points | 152.4 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [22, 35] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Butler, aligning with sharp money and mathematical projections, making a follow on the favorite optimal rather than a fade. Chicago State’s ongoing struggles amplify the edge, with no notable injuries altering the outlook. Overall game scoring projects low due to Butler’s controlled pace and Chicago State’s offensive woes, favoring the under.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Butler Bulldogs — Overwhelming data supports the heavy favorite in this mismatch.

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