Providence Friars vs Pennsylvania Quakers

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-11 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-11 05:53 PM EST

Providence Friars vs Pennsylvania Quakers on 2025-11-11

💰 Best Bet #1 Providence Friars / Spread / -19.5 at -115 / 65% / Providence’s adjusted offensive efficiency of 110 and strong home defense against a weaker Ivy League opponent like Penn, who just lost 78-84 to American, support a comfortable cover.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 173.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams play at moderate tempos (Providence 70, Penn 68), with Providence allowing 95 points per 100 possessions and Penn’s offense struggling in recent outings, pointing to a lower-scoring affair.

💰 Best Bet #3 Providence Friars / Moneyline / -3200 / 95% / Overwhelming favoritism backed by superior rankings and Penn’s poor early-season form, making the Friars a near-lock.

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Providence 92% / Pennsylvania 8%

💰 Money Distribution
Providence 78% / Pennsylvania 22%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -18.5 and moved to -19.5 with balanced action, showing stability despite heavy public favoritism toward Providence.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Providence spread; implied probability undervalues the Friars’ dominance based on KenPom efficiencies and simulation outcomes.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Providence Friars | 95.0% |
| Win % for Pennsylvania Quakers | 5.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Providence Friars | 60.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 45% / Under: 55% |
| Average Total Points | 170.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [10.0, 40.0] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Bryce Hopkins / Over Points / 15.5 at -110 / 70% / Hopkins, back from ACL injury and averaging 16.2 PPG in early 2025 games, faces Penn’s weak perimeter defense allowing 45% from three.
Player Prop #2: Jayden Pierre / Over Assists / 5.5 at -115 / 65% / Pierre’s 6.1 APG in recent matchups exploits Penn’s turnover-prone backcourt, with Providence’s efficient offense boosting playmaking opportunities.
Player Prop #3: Jordan Dingle / Under Points / 14.5 at -105 / 60% / Dingle’s 12.8 PPG against stronger defenses this season, combined with Providence’s top-50 defensive rebounding limiting second chances.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Providence, aligning with sharp money and mathematical projections from efficiencies and recent form, making following the favorite optimal rather than fading. Penn’s recent loss highlights defensive vulnerabilities, but Providence’s controlled pace suggests a game that stays under the total. Overall scoring outlook leans low due to the Friars’ stout defense and the Quakers’ offensive inefficiencies against power-conference foes.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Providence Friars — data convergence points to a decisive home win with spread value.

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