Arkansas Razorbacks vs Central Arkansas Bears

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-11 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-11 05:57 PM EST

Arkansas Razorbacks vs Central Arkansas Bears on 2025-11-11

💰 Best Bet #1 Arkansas Razorbacks / Spread / -35.5 at -110 / 68% / Arkansas holds a significant talent and ranking advantage as the #21 team hosting a mid-major opponent, with recent defensive efficiency limiting foes to under 70 points; Central Arkansas struggles offensively against superior defenses.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 158.5 at -110 / 62% / Both teams play at moderate tempos, with Arkansas allowing just 66 points in their latest loss and Central Arkansas averaging low-70s scoring; matchup favors controlled pace and strong interior defense reducing transition opportunities.

💰 Best Bet #3 Arkansas Razorbacks / Moneyline / -25000 / 95% / Overwhelming favoritism backed by home-court edge and superior adjusted efficiency ratings, making an upset highly improbable against an unranked foe.

Game Times

ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Arkansas Razorbacks 92% / Central Arkansas Bears 8%

💰 Money Distribution
Arkansas Razorbacks 78% / Central Arkansas Bears 22%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
The spread opened at -36.5 and has ticked down slightly to -35.5 across major books like DraftKings and BetMGM, with minimal movement despite heavy public action on Arkansas, indicating sharp stability on the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Arkansas spread / Reasoning: Implied probability of 52.4% from -110 odds undervalues the 68% simulated cover rate, driven by Arkansas’s 115+ adjusted offensive efficiency versus Central Arkansas’s sub-100 defensive rating in early 2025 games.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Arkansas Razorbacks | 95% |
| Win % for Central Arkansas Bears | 5% |
| Spread Cover % for Arkansas Razorbacks | 68% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 38% / Under: 62% |
| Average Total Points | 142 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [28, 42] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: D.J. Wagner / Over Points / 8.5 at -135 / 72% / Wagner averages 12.5 points early in 2025 with high usage in Arkansas’s motion offense; Central Arkansas allows 15+ to opposing guards, favoring his scoring volume.

Player Prop #2: Darius Acuff Jr. / Over Assists / 4.5 at -155 / 70% / Acuff dishes 5.2 assists per game as primary facilitator, exploiting Central Arkansas’s weak perimeter defense (opponents average 18 assists against them); no key injuries disrupt his role.

Player Prop #3: D.J. Wagner / Over Threes / 1.5 at -130 / 65% / Wagner shoots 42% from deep on volume, and Central Arkansas ranks bottom-100 in opponent 3P% allowed; Arkansas’s spacing boosts his attempts in a blowout scenario.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Arkansas, aligning with sharp money and line stability, making following the public the optimal approach amid the Razorbacks’ superior metrics and home dominance. Central Arkansas’s recent 1-1 form shows scoring limitations against ranked foes, supporting a follow on the spread without contrarian value. Overall game scoring tilts low due to Arkansas’s top-50 defensive rebounding and Central Arkansas’s inefficient offense (sub-45% eFG%), projecting under the total.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Arkansas Razorbacks — the mathematical probability strongly supports their dominance in this mismatch.

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