Kansas Jayhawks vs Texas A&M-CC Islanders

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-11 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-11 06:01 PM EST

🏀 Kansas Jayhawks vs Texas A&M-CC Islanders on 2025-11-11

💰 Best Bet #1 Kansas Jayhawks / Spread / -27.5 at -110 / 72% / Kansas dominates with superior talent and home-court edge against a weaker Islanders squad showing poor recent form, including a loss to Tarleton State; adjusted efficiency ratings favor Kansas covering by a wide margin.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 147.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams exhibit defensive tendencies early in the season, with Kansas allowing under 70 points per game and Texas A&M-CC struggling offensively (averaging 77 points in recent outings); pace control and matchup dynamics point to a lower-scoring affair.

💰 Best Bet #3 Kansas Jayhawks / Moneyline / -10000 / 98% / Overwhelming favoritism backed by Kansas’s elite roster and historical dominance over mid-major opponents, making an upset highly improbable.

Game Times

ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
Kansas 95% / Texas A&M-CC 5%

💰 Money Distribution
Kansas 85% / Texas A&M-CC 15%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
The spread opened at -25.5 and moved to -27.5 across major books like DraftKings and FanDuel, reflecting steady sharp action on Kansas despite heavy public backing; total stable around 147.5 with slight under juice.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+4.2% on Kansas spread, driven by convergence of public money, line stability, and Kansas’s superior adjusted offensive efficiency (projected 120+ per KenPom early metrics) versus Texas A&M-CC’s defensive vulnerabilities; no reverse line movement, but EV holds on favorite due to talent gap.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Kansas Jayhawks | 98.00% |
| Win % for Texas A&M-CC Islanders | 2.00% |
| Spread Cover % for Kansas Jayhawks | 72.00% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 45% / Under: 55% |
| Average Total Points | 148.00 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [20.00, 60.00] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Darryn Peterson / Over Points / 21.5 at -110 / 70% / Peterson, Kansas’s primary scorer with high usage rate (25%+), has cleared 21.5 in recent games against lesser defenses; Texas A&M-CC allows 80+ points per matchup, favoring his efficient shooting (45% FG early season).

Player Prop #2: Flory Bidunga / Over Points + Rebounds / 22.5 at -125 / 68% / Bidunga’s double-double threat shines inside, averaging 18 points + 9 rebounds; Islanders’ weak frontcourt (allowing 40+ rebounds per game) boosts his opportunities without key injuries impacting availability.

Player Prop #3: Flory Bidunga / Over Rebounds / 7.5 at -120 / 75% / Dominant rebounder for Kansas (projected 10+ per game), exploiting Texas A&M-CC’s poor defensive rebounding rate (under 70% early season); home advantage amplifies his board dominance.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Kansas, aligning with sharp money and mathematical projections from efficiency ratings and recent form, making a follow strategy optimal rather than fading. No major injuries reported for key players like Peterson and Bidunga, preserving Kansas’s edge. Overall game scoring outlook leans under due to Kansas’s controlled pace (tempo ~70) and Texas A&M-CC’s offensive inefficiencies against top defenses.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Kansas Jayhawks — the talent disparity and home advantage create the strongest probability for a decisive victory and cover.

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