Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-12 07:10 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-12 06:41 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [New York Rangers / +1.5 / -230 at DraftKings / 68% / Rangers’ strong defensive structure and Tampa’s depleted blue line (Hedman banged up, McDonagh out) limit Lightning’s cover potential, aligning with simulation’s 69% cover rate for the dog.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 5.5 at -106 at FanDuel / 62% / Both teams average under 3 goals allowed recently in 2025 season, with Vasilevskiy and Shesterkin posting .920+ save percentages; simulation projects 6.08 average but 59% under probability factoring low-danger chances.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Tampa Bay Lightning / Moneyline / -130 at DraftKings / 55% / Home-ice edge and Kucherov/Point duo drive 55% win simulation, supported by Tampa’s 7-3 home record this season despite injuries.]

Tampa Bay Lightning vs New York Rangers on 2025-11-12

Game Times

ET: 7:10 PM
CT: 6:10 PM
MT: 5:10 PM
PT: 4:10 PM
AKT: 3:10 PM
HST: 1:10 PM

💸 Public Bets
[65% Tampa Bay / 35% New York]

💰 Money Distribution
[70% Tampa Bay / 30% New York]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -140 for Tampa Bay moneyline and moved to -147, with puck line stable at -1.5 (+150), indicating steady sharp action on the home favorite despite public support.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Rangers +1.5] — Implied probability of 64% for Rangers covering is undervalued against simulation’s 69%, creating positive EV when factoring defensive metrics and injury impacts on Tampa Bay’s blue line.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Tampa Bay Lightning | 55% |
| Win % for New York Rangers | 45% |
| Spread Cover % for Tampa Bay Lightning | 31% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 41% / Under: 59% |
| Average Total Goals | 6.08 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-5, 5] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Artemi Panarin / Over Shots on Goal / 2.5 at -167 (BetRivers) / 72% / Panarin averages 3.2 SOG in 2025 season road games, exploiting Tampa’s weakened defense (Hedman/McDonagh out); hits over in 8/10 recent matchups vs similar opponents.

Player Prop #2: Nikita Kucherov / Over Assists / 0.5 at -168 (DraftKings) / 75% / Leads NHL with 12 assists in 10 home games this season, thriving on PP (28% efficiency); Rangers PK ranks 22nd, boosting multi-point potential per xGA data.

Player Prop #3: Mika Zibanejad / Over Shots on Goal / 2.5 at -125 (BetRivers) / 70% / Averages 3.1 SOG vs Tampa historically, with 2025 season usage up 15% post-line shuffle; Lightning allow 28.5 SOG/game to centers, favoring over based on defensive regression.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Tampa Bay, aligning with money distribution and line stability, but sharp action tempers the favorite due to injuries thinning the Lightning’s defense. Following the public on the moneyline holds neutral EV, while fading on the spread exploits Tampa’s vulnerability without forcing contrarianism. Overall scoring leans low, as both netminders excel in high-danger saves and recent trends show unders in 6/8 combined games.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Tampa Bay] — Mathematical probability supports the home win at 55%, backed by form and venue despite injury concerns.

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