Marquette Golden Eagles vs Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-12 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-12 06:22 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 Marquette Golden Eagles / Spread / -20.5 at -110 / 65% / Marquette’s superior adjusted efficiency ratings and Little Rock’s defensive struggles in recent outings, including a 20-point loss to Milwaukee, indicate a strong likelihood of covering the spread at home.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 155.5 at -110 / 55% / Marquette’s fast-paced offense combined with Little Rock’s vulnerability to high-scoring games suggests the total will exceed the line, supported by an average simulated total of 152 but with upward variance in efficiency matchups.

💰 Best Bet #3 Marquette Golden Eagles / Moneyline / -4500 / 85% / As a dominant home favorite with an 85% simulated win probability, Marquette’s depth and form outweigh Little Rock’s underdog status.

Marquette Golden Eagles vs Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans on 2025-11-12

Game Times

ET: 08:00 PM
CT: 07:00 PM
MT: 06:00 PM
PT: 05:00 PM
AKT: 04:00 PM
HST: 02:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

Marquette Golden Eagles 80% / Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans 20%

💰 Money Distribution

Marquette Golden Eagles 75% / Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans 25%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

The spread opened at -21 and has held steady around -20.5 to -21 across sportsbooks, with minimal movement despite heavy public action on Marquette, indicating sharp stability on the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3% on Marquette spread; the line’s consistency and simulation cover rate of 65% exceed the implied probability of -110 odds, creating value against Little Rock’s current season defensive inefficiencies.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Marquette Golden Eagles | 85% |
| Win % for Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans | 15% |
| Spread Cover % for Marquette Golden Eagles | 65% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 55% / Under: 45% |
| Average Total Points/Runs/Goals | 152 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [8, 38] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Marquette, aligning with sharp money and market consensus, making following the public the optimal approach given the mathematical edge on the spread and moneyline. Little Rock’s recent 20-point defeat highlights defensive weaknesses that Marquette’s efficient offense can exploit. The game projects as moderately high-scoring, with offensive rebounding and tempo favoring the over slightly based on current season metrics.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Marquette Golden Eagles — the convergence of public action, line stability, and simulation outcomes points to the highest probability of success on the favorite.

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