Texas State Bobcats vs UTSA Roadrunners

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-12 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-12 06:27 PM EST

Texas State Bobcats vs UTSA Roadrunners on 2025-11-12

Game Times

ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

💰 Best Bet #1 Texas State Bobcats / Spread / -3.5 at -102 / 55% / Simulation shows 55% cover rate with home-court edge in San Marcos boosting efficiency against UTSA’s middling defense.
💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 147.5 at -108 / 52% / Projected average of 145.2 points aligns with both teams’ recent low-possession games and defensive rebounding strengths limiting second-chance opportunities.
💰 Best Bet #3 Texas State Bobcats / Moneyline / -155 / 55% / 55% win probability from adjusted efficiency metrics and historical dominance in I-35 rivalry.

💸 Public Bets
Texas State Bobcats 68% / UTSA Roadrunners 32%

💰 Money Distribution
Texas State Bobcats 58% / UTSA Roadrunners 42%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened at Texas State -2.5 across most books; moved to -3.5 on DraftKings and BetMGM despite heavy public action on the favorite, indicating some sharp resistance on UTSA.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.8% on Texas State spread; implied probability from odds (50.5%) undervalues simulation’s 55% cover rate, supported by home splits and UTSA’s road defensive rating drop-off in current season.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Texas State Bobcats | 55% |
| Win % for UTSA Roadrunners | 45% |
| Spread Cover % for Texas State Bobcats | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 145.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8.5, 12.3] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Jordan Mason / Over 16.5 Points / -110 / 72% / Mason averages 18.2 PPG in home games this season with 28% usage rate; UTSA allows 17.8 PPG to opposing guards on moderate pace.
Player Prop #2: PJ Byrd / Under 12.5 Points / -112 / 68% / Byrd held under 12 in 4 of last 5 road games, facing Texas State’s top-150 defensive efficiency that limits perimeter scoring (opponents at 41% eFG%).
Player Prop #3: Caleb Asberry / Over 5.5 Rebounds / -105 / 70% / Asberry grabs 6.4 RPG overall, boosted by UTSA’s 38% defensive rebound rate allowing second chances; simulation projects high board opportunities in even matchup.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans heavily toward Texas State, but divergent money distribution suggests sharp plays on UTSA keeping value alive on the favorite’s side without full alignment. Following the public aligns with mathematical edges here, as simulation and efficiency metrics confirm Texas State’s home advantage without overvaluation. Overall game scoring outlook points low, with combined offensive ratings projecting under the total amid both teams’ deliberate tempo and solid interior defense.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Texas State Bobcats — simulation win probability and EV on spread/moneyline outweigh public bias in this home-favored spot.

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