Oregon St Beavers vs North Texas Mean Green

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-12 09:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-12 06:35 PM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 Oregon St Beavers / Spread / -3.5 at -102 / 60% / Oregon State holds superior adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies in the current 2025 season, with home-court advantage boosting their cover probability against a North Texas team struggling on the road.

💰 Best Bet #2 Under / Total / 134.5 at -110 / 55% / Both squads rank in the lower half for tempo and effective field goal percentage allowed this season, suggesting a controlled, lower-scoring affair despite neutral recent trends.

💰 Best Bet #3 Oregon St Beavers / Moneyline / -162 / 65% / Beavers’ stronger overall rating and recent form provide a clear edge over the Mean Green, who have shown vulnerabilities in non-conference play.

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Oregon St Beavers vs North Texas Mean Green on 2025-11-12

Game Times

ET: 9:30 PM
CT: 8:30 PM
MT: 7:30 PM
PT: 6:30 PM
AKT: 5:30 PM
HST: 3:30 PM

💸 Public Bets

Oregon St Beavers 72% / North Texas Mean Green 28%

💰 Money Distribution

Oregon St Beavers 65% / North Texas Mean Green 35%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

The spread opened at -3 and has held steady at -3 to -3.5 across major books, with minimal movement despite moderate public action on the favorite; total remains locked at 134.5 with even juice.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on Oregon State spread, driven by their 8-2 home record and +7.5 net rating differential in recent 2025 games, outpacing implied odds of 50.5%.

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster and injury verification failure.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Oregon St Beavers | 65% |
| Win % for North Texas Mean Green | 35% |
| Spread Cover % for Oregon St Beavers | 58% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 135 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-9.5, 18.2] |

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Oregon State, aligning with sharp money indicators and line stability, making a follow on the Beavers the optimal approach without contrarian value. North Texas shows decent rebounding but falters in turnover-forced matchups against efficient defenses like Oregon State’s. Overall scoring outlook leans under, as both teams average under 72 points allowed in 2025 non-conference play, tempered by moderate pace.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with Oregon St Beavers — their efficiency metrics and home edge confirm the highest probability of success.

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