Texas Longhorns vs Fairleigh Dickinson Knights

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-12 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-12 06:23 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Texas Longhorns / Spread / -31.5 at -110 / 65% / Texas’s superior efficiency ratings and home dominance against a winless FDU team support covering the large spread, backed by simulation cover rate and recent form.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 158.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams’ pace and Texas’s offensive output push toward a higher-scoring game, with average simulated total exceeding the line despite FDU’s defensive struggles.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Texas Longhorns / Moneyline / -5000 / 98% / Overwhelming talent disparity and home advantage make Texas a near-certainty to win outright in this mismatch.]

Texas Longhorns vs Fairleigh Dickinson Knights on 2025-11-12

Game Times

ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[Texas Longhorns 78% / Fairleigh Dickinson Knights 22%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Texas Longhorns 65% / Fairleigh Dickinson Knights 35%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at -30.5 and moved to -31.5 with balanced action, showing stability despite public leaning toward the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+4.2% on Texas spread cover / Simulation probabilities exceed implied odds, with sharp money supporting the favorite amid FDU’s early-season woes.]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Texas Longhorns | 98.5% |
| Win % for Fairleigh Dickinson Knights | 1.5% |
| Spread Cover % for Texas Longhorns | 65.2% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 55.3% / Under: 44.7% |
| Average Total Points | 160.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [25.1, 65.4] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Tramon Mark / Over Points / 10.5 at -130 / 70% / Mark’s usage rate and scoring efficiency against weaker defenses favor exceeding this low line, with Texas’s pace boosting opportunities.
Player Prop #2: Matas Vokietaitis / Over Points / 13.5 at -125 / 68% / As FDU’s key scorer, Vokietaitis averages above this in recent outings, though limited by Texas’s defense, his volume supports the over.
Player Prop #3: Jordan Pope / Over Threes / 1.5 at -200 / 72% / Pope’s 3-point volume and accuracy in early games align with hitting this, especially if FDU trails and relies on outside shooting.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Texas, aligning with sharp money and simulation metrics that highlight the Longhorns’ edge in efficiency and home performance. Following the public proves optimal here, as no reverse line movement or contrarian signals emerge. The game outlook leans toward moderate scoring, with Texas’s offense driving points but FDU’s struggles capping the total.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Texas Longhorns] — the data convergence points to a strong probability of victory and cover in this lopsided matchup.

Highlights unavailable for future events.