Montréal Canadiens vs Dallas Stars

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-13 07:10 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-13 11:21 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Dallas Stars / +1.5 / -260 / 65% / Stars’ defensive metrics (xGA/60 at 2.45) and recent form (3-1 in last 4) suggest they keep it close against Montréal’s middling offense (2.9 GPG at home), with simulation showing only 35% cover rate for Habs spread.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 6 at -117 / 58% / Both teams rank top-10 in PK% (Stars 82%, Habs 80%), recent games averaging 5.2 goals combined, and simulation projects 5.6 average total, favoring under in a controlled matchup without key scorers like Laine.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Montréal Canadiens / Moneyline / -120 / 55% / Home-ice edge (Habs 5-2-1 at Bell Centre) and superior xGF (2.8/60) give slight probability edge, aligning with simulation win % despite public overbetting.]

Montréal Canadiens vs Dallas Stars on 2025-11-13

Game Times

ET: 7:10 PM
CT: 6:10 PM
MT: 5:10 PM
PT: 4:10 PM
AKT: 3:10 PM
HST: 1:10 PM

💸 Public Bets
Montréal Canadiens 62% / Dallas Stars 38%

💰 Money Distribution
Montréal Canadiens 48% / Dallas Stars 52%

💹 Market Alignment
Divergent

📉 Line Movement
Opened at Montréal -130 ML, moved to -120 despite heavy public action on home side, indicating sharp money on Dallas.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+2.8% on Dallas side / Reverse line movement against public betting, combined with Stars’ strong PK (82%) and Canadiens’ average home scoring (2.9 goals/game), creates value in underdog plays.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Montréal Canadiens | 55% |
| Win % for Dallas Stars | 45% |
| Spread Cover % for Montréal Canadiens | 35% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 42% / Under: 58% |
| Average Total Points/Runs/Goals | 5.6 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2, +3] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Nick Suzuki / Over 0.5 Points / 0.5 at -248 / 75% / Suzuki leads Habs with 0.9 points per game in current season, high usage (22:15 TOI), and faces Stars’ middling PK (82%), hitting over in 70% of home games.

Player Prop #2: Cole Caufield / Over 2.5 Shots on Goal / 2.5 at -130 / 70% / Caufield averages 3.2 SOG per game, thrives on PP (26.1% team rate), and Stars allow 31.5 opponent shots; over in 65% of recent outings vs similar defenses.

Player Prop #3: Jason Robertson / Over 0.5 Points / 0.5 at -212 / 72% / Robertson’s 0.8 points per game and chemistry with Hintz exploit Habs’ 80% PK, with over in 68% of road games; simulation favors multi-point potential in even matchup.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Montréal at 62%, but money distribution leans Dallas at 52%, creating divergence with reverse line movement signaling sharp action on the Stars amid their injury challenges yet strong underlying metrics like xGA/60. Following the public aligns with home win probability, but fading provides +EV on Dallas due to RLM and simulation edges. Overall game outlook points to low scoring, with both teams’ top-10 PK units and average 5.6 simulated total suppressing offense.

🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on Dallas Stars — mathematical probability favors their cover and value against overbet home side.

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