NHL
Calgary Flames vs 
San Jose Sharks
League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-13 09:10 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-13 11:25 AM EST
💰 Best Bet #1 [San Jose Sharks / +1.5 / -185 / 72% / Sharks’ recent form shows resilience in close games, with simulation indicating only 35% cover rate for Flames -1.5; home struggles for Calgary (4-12-2) tilt value to the underdog puck line.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 6.5 at -135 / 58% / Both teams average under 3 goals scored recently, with Flames allowing 3.2 per game and Sharks’ defense holding firm (2.1 GA in last 5); simulation projects 5.6 average goals, favoring the under in a low-pace matchup.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [San Jose Sharks / Moneyline / +136 / 55% / Despite public leaning Flames, Sharks’ 8-6-3 record outperforms Calgary’s 4-12-2; simulation gives Sharks 50% win probability, creating positive EV on the road underdog amid Flames’ injury concerns.]
Calgary Flames vs San Jose Sharks on 2025-11-13
Game Times
ET: 9:00 PM
CT: 8:00 PM
MT: 7:00 PM
PT: 6:00 PM
AKT: 5:00 PM
HST: 3:00 PM
💸 Public Bets
[62% Calgary Flames / 38% San Jose Sharks]
💰 Money Distribution
[48% Calgary Flames / 52% San Jose Sharks]
💹 Market Alignment
[Divergent]
📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Calgary -155 ML and has steadied around -160, with slight movement toward Sharks +1.5 from -190 to -185 despite public action on the favorite; total held firm at 6/6.5 with no major shifts.
💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Sharks +1.5] — Simulation and recent metrics (Sharks 2.1 GA last 5, Flames 3.2 GA) show value against public overreaction to home ice, with reverse line movement signaling sharp support for San Jose.
Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Calgary Flames | 45% |
| Win % for San Jose Sharks | 50% |
| Tie % | 5% |
| Spread Cover % for Calgary Flames -1.5 | 35% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.6 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.0, 3.0] |
Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Macklin Celebrini / Over 0.5 Points / 0.5 at -234 / 78% / Celebrini’s 1.2 points per game average in 2025 season, high usage on top line vs Flames’ weak PK (78% efficiency allowed), simulation projects multi-point potential in favorable matchup.
Player Prop #2: Nazem Kadri / Over 3.5 Shots on Goal / 3.5 at +105 / 62% / Kadri averages 3.8 SOG recently, exploiting Sharks’ defense that yields 32 shots per game; home advantage and power-play role boost over likelihood against middling goaltending.
Player Prop #3: MacKenzie Weegar / Over 0.5 Assists / 0.5 at +145 / 65% / Weegar’s 0.7 assists per game on PP1, Sharks allow 1.2 assists to opposing D; recent form (assists in 4 of 5) and Flames’ shot volume support multi-point from backend.
⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the Flames due to home ice, but money distribution and line stability indicate sharp action on the Sharks, creating a contrarian edge supported by Calgary’s poor 4-12-2 start and San Jose’s solid 8-6-3 record. Fade the public here as metrics align with professional betting patterns, with no major RLM but positive EV from recent form. Overall game outlook points to a low-scoring affair, as both offenses struggle (combined 5.1 goals per game average) against decent defenses, favoring unders.
🔮 Recommended Play
Fade the public on San Jose Sharks — Mathematical probability favors the road team at 50% win rate per simulation, with contextual edges in defense and Flames’ inconsistencies outweighing public hype.
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