Michigan St Spartans vs San José St Spartans

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-13 06:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-13 11:30 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Michigan St Spartans / Spread / -24.5 at -110 / 55% / Michigan State’s dominant home efficiency and SJSU’s poor defensive rebounding support covering the large spread, aligned with simulation cover rate.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 141.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams’ recent tempos and MSU’s high-efficiency offense push toward a higher-scoring game, exceeding the line based on average simulated total of 143.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Michigan St Spartans / Moneyline / -10000 / 98% / Overwhelming talent disparity and home advantage make MSU a near-certainty, with simulation showing 98.5% win probability.]

Michigan St Spartans vs San José St Spartans on 2025-11-13

Game Times

ET: 6:30 PM
CT: 5:30 PM
MT: 4:30 PM
PT: 3:30 PM
AKT: 2:30 PM
HST: 12:30 PM

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Michigan St Spartans | 98.5% |
| Win % for San José St Spartans | 1.5% |
| Spread Cover % for Michigan St Spartans | 55.2% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 51.8% / Under: 48.2% |
| Average Total Points/Runs/Goals | 143.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [11.2, 39.8] |

💸 Public Bets
[Michigan St 95% / San José St 5%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Michigan St 92% / San José St 8%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
[Stable at -24.5 for MSU spread; total steady around 141.5 with minor adjustments favoring over action.]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on MSU spread; implied probability undervalues simulation outcomes, supported by MSU’s superior adjusted efficiency ratings.]

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Jeremy Fears Jr. / Over Points / 10.5 at -110 / 72% / Fears’ high usage rate (28%) and SJSU’s weak perimeter defense (allowing 35% from three) favor exceeding, with 70% hit rate in recent home games.
Player Prop #2: Jaxon Kohler / Over Rebounds / 8.5 at -110 / 68% / Kohler’s dominance on the glass (9.2 RPG average) against SJSU’s poor rebounding (bottom-20 nationally) supports over, especially with interior mismatch.
Player Prop #3: Coen Carr / Over Points / 13.5 at -105 / 65% / Carr’s efficient scoring (55% TS%) in transition exploits SJSU’s slow defensive tempo, hitting over in 4 of last 5 outings.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Michigan State, aligning with sharp money and simulation metrics, making a follow strategy optimal rather than fading. The matchup favors a high-scoring affair due to MSU’s offensive efficiency (top-15 adjusted) overwhelming SJSU’s middling defense, though the total leans slightly over without extreme variance. No major injuries impact key players, reinforcing the edge on the favorite across markets.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Michigan St Spartans] — mathematical probabilities confirm the heavy favorite’s dominance in this lopsided contest.

Highlights unavailable for future events.