Alabama Crimson Tide vs Purdue Boilermakers

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-13 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-13 11:31 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Alabama Crimson Tide / Spread / -2.5 at -115 / 58% / Alabama’s home advantage and superior adjusted efficiency ratings give them an edge to cover against Purdue’s road challenges, supported by recent form showing strong defensive rebounding.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 175.5 at -115 / 55% / Both teams exhibit solid defensive metrics early in the season, with Purdue’s interior defense limiting high-scoring outputs and Alabama’s pace control favoring a lower total despite offensive potentials.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Alabama Crimson Tide / Moneyline / -162 / 62% / Consensus from market alignment and simulation projects Alabama as clear favorites at home, with Purdue’s potential limited minutes for key players like Kaufman-Renn reducing upset potential.]

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Purdue Boilermakers on 2025-11-13

Game Times

ET: 07:00 PM
CT: 06:00 PM
MT: 05:00 PM
PT: 04:00 PM
AKT: 03:00 PM
HST: 01:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

[68% / 32%]

💰 Money Distribution

[52% / 48%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Alabama -2 and has ticked up to -3 across most books despite heavy public action on the favorite, indicating sharp money on Purdue +3, with total steady at 175.5.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Alabama spread] — Implied probability undervalues Alabama’s home efficiency advantage per KenPom data, where they rank higher in adjusted defensive efficiency against Purdue’s slower tempo.

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Alabama Crimson Tide | 62% |
| Win % for Purdue Boilermakers | 38% |
| Spread Cover % for Alabama Crimson Tide | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 176 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-8, +4] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Braden Smith / Over Assists / 9.5 at -110 / 65% / Smith’s playmaking role in Purdue’s offense averages 10+ assists in early games, and Alabama’s perimeter defense allows high assist rates to opposing guards based on current season metrics.

Player Prop #2: Labaron Philon Jr. / Over Points / 17.5 at -115 / 60% / Philon’s scoring volume at home exceeds this line in recent outings, exploiting Purdue’s weaker wing defense with efficient shot selection and high usage rate.

Player Prop #3: Trey Kaufman-Renn / Under Points / 19.5 at -125 / 62% / Limited minutes due to recent injury recovery cap his output, as Purdue rotates interior players, and Alabama’s frontcourt disrupts high-volume scorers per defensive rebounding stats.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Alabama, but divergent money distribution suggests sharp action on Purdue, creating value on the underdog side if Kaufman-Renn’s minutes are restricted. Follow the public on the moneyline for Alabama given home advantage, but fade on the spread due to RLM. Overall game scoring outlook leans under, as both teams’ defensive efficiencies (Alabama top-15, Purdue top-20 per KenPom) suppress totals in top-10 matchups.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Fade the public on Purdue +3.5] — Mathematical probability favors the value in the underdog with sharp backing and injury context.

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