St. Thomas (MN) Tommies vs Green Bay Phoenix

League: NCAAB | Date: 2025-11-13 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-13 11:37 AM EST

🧠 Top 3 Overall Best Bets

💰 Best Bet #1 St. Thomas (MN) Tommies / Spread / -13.5 at -112 / 65% / St. Thomas shows strong adjusted offensive efficiency (108.5) against Green Bay’s weak defense (allowing 85+ PPG early season), with home advantage boosting cover probability amid stable line movement.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 152.5 at -112 / 58% / Both teams play above-average tempo (72 possessions/game combined), recent games averaging 160 total points, and no major defensive injuries suggest a high-scoring affair despite early-season rust.

💰 Best Bet #3 St. Thomas (MN) Tommies / Moneyline / -1100 / 78% / Superior recent form (competitive loss to WSU) and roster depth overpower Green Bay’s struggles (0-2 start with poor rebounding), aligning with sharp money on the favorite.

---

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies vs Green Bay Phoenix on 2025-11-13

Game Times

ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

💸 Public Bets

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies 75% / Green Bay Phoenix 25%

💰 Money Distribution

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies 68% / Green Bay Phoenix 32%

💹 Market Alignment

Aligned

📉 Line Movement

Stable at -13.5 for St. Thomas since opening, with slight steam toward the favorite on DraftKings and BetMGM despite public heavy on home side—no reverse movement indicating sharp resistance.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

+3.2% on St. Thomas spread / Implied probability (55% from odds) undervalues model’s 65% cover estimate based on efficiency differentials and home splits; total offers marginal +1.8% EV on over due to tempo mismatch.

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for St. Thomas (MN) Tommies | 78% |
| Win % for Green Bay Phoenix | 22% |
| Spread Cover % for St. Thomas (MN) Tommies | 65% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 58% / Under: 42% |
| Average Total Points | 155.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [+8.5, +18.3] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors St. Thomas, aligning with money distribution and no sharp contrarian signals from line stability, making following the favorite optimal rather than fading. Green Bay’s defensive inefficiencies (low rebounding rate at 45%) and St. Thomas’s solid offensive rebounding suggest the game leans toward the over, with overall scoring outlook projecting a moderate-paced contest around 155 points. No major injuries reported for key players as of game day.

🔮 Recommended Play

Follow the public with St. Thomas (MN) Tommies — data convergence on home efficiency and form provides the strongest probability edge.

Highlights unavailable for future events.