Philadelphia Flyers vs St. Louis Blues

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-20 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-20 05:37 PM EST

Philadelphia Flyers vs St. Louis Blues on 2025-11-20

Game Times

ET: 07:00 PM
CT: 06:00 PM
MT: 05:00 PM
PT: 04:00 PM
AKT: 03:00 PM
HST: 01:00 PM

💰 Best Bet #1 [St. Louis Blues / Spread / +1.5 at -180 / 75% / Blues’ defensive structure limits Flyers’ scoring edge at home, with recent form showing strong puck-line coverage against similar opponents]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 5.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams’ average goals per game exceed the line, supported by high xGF metrics and power-play opportunities despite injuries]
💰 Best Bet #3 [St. Louis Blues / Moneyline / +105 / 50% / Simulation edges Blues in win probability, aligning with sharp money on the road underdog amid Flyers’ injury concerns]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Philadelphia Flyers | 45% |
| Win % for St. Louis Blues | 50% |
| Tie % | 5% |
| Puck Line Cover % for St. Louis Blues (-1.5) | 40% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 55% / Under: 45% |
| Average Total Goals | 5.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.1, 3.2] |

💸 Public Bets
[55% / 45%]

💰 Money Distribution
[50% / 50%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Flyers -130 ML, moved to -125 with balanced action; total steady at 5.5 despite slight sharp lean over.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Blues ML / Simulation and xGA metrics indicate undervaluation of Blues’ road resilience, creating positive EV against public favoritism toward home team]

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Travis Konecny / Over 0.5 Points / -110 / 70% / Konecny’s top-line usage and 0.8 points per game average against Central Division teams support over, with Blues’ penalty kill vulnerable at 78%.
Player Prop #2: Robert Thomas / Over 0.5 Assists / -115 / 65% / Thomas leads Blues with 1.2 assists per game in recent outings, exploiting Flyers’ defensive injuries like Ristolainen’s absence for high-danger chances.
Player Prop #3: Jordan Kyrou / Under 2.5 Shots on Goal / -120 / 60% / Kyrou averages 2.1 shots against Atlantic defenses, with Flyers’ forecheck reducing opportunities in projected low-pace matchup.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward the Flyers as home favorites, but money distribution shows balance, suggesting sharp action on the Blues amid divergent alignment. Following the Blues offers the optimal mathematical edge due to their superior xGF/xGA differentials in the current season, while fading the public avoids overvaluation of Philadelphia’s inconsistent offense. Overall game scoring projects moderately high, with both teams’ recent trends and power-play efficiencies favoring the over based on 5.8 average goals from simulations.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Fade the public on St. Louis Blues] — simulation probabilities and defensive metrics confirm the road underdog’s value.

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