Detroit Red Wings vs New York Islanders

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-20 07:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-20 05:39 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [New York Islanders / Puck Line / +1.5 at -170 / 65% / Simulation indicates only 35% cover rate for Detroit -1.5, creating value on the Islanders covering as underdogs given balanced money distribution and recent defensive trends for both teams in the current season.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 6.0 at -110 / 52% / Average simulated goals at 5.8 with under probability at 52%, supported by both teams’ low xGF in recent matchups and potential fatigue factors.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Detroit Red Wings / Moneyline / -134 / 55% / Home-ice advantage and 55% win probability from simulation align with public lean, though sharp money shows slight balance favoring the favorite’s edge.]

🏒 Matchup: Detroit Red Wings vs New York Islanders on 2025-11-20

Game Times

ET: 7:00 PM
CT: 6:00 PM
MT: 5:00 PM
PT: 4:00 PM
AKT: 3:00 PM
HST: 1:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[65% / 35%]

💰 Money Distribution
[55% / 45%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Red Wings -1.5 (+150) and moved to -1.5 (+140) with slight action on Detroit, while the total held steady at 6.0 despite moderate public interest in the over.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Islanders +1.5 / Public leans Wings but money shows balance, creating value on the spread underdog; EV derived from simulation win probabilities and current lines indicating a 2-4% edge after vig.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Detroit Red Wings | 55% |
| Win % for New York Islanders | 35% |
| Spread Cover % for Detroit Red Wings (-1.5) | 35% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points/Runs/Goals | 5.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2, 4] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Lucas Raymond / Over 0.5 Points / 0.5 at -120 / 70% / Raymond’s high usage on Detroit’s top line and strong xGF metrics against similar defenses like the Islanders’ suggest a high hit rate, with 70% success in recent home games this season.
Player Prop #2: Bo Horvat / Under 0.5 Goals / 0.5 at -150 / 75% / Horvat’s scoring dips against structured defenses, and Islanders’ low shot volume on the road supports under, backed by defensive data showing opponents limiting his high-danger chances.
Player Prop #3: Alex DeBrincat / Over 2.5 Shots on Goal / 2.5 at -110 / 68% / DeBrincat averages 3.2 shots per game at home this season, with favorable matchup against Islanders’ penalty kill and his elevated shot volume in recent outings.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment aligns with sharp money on the Red Wings as favorites, but the simulation reveals limited cover potential on the puck line, making a fade viable on the spread while following the moneyline consensus. Both teams exhibit solid defensive structures this season, with xGA per 60 below league average, pointing to a lower-scoring affair likely staying under the total. Overall, the matchup favors Detroit’s home edge without overhyping their offense against New York’s resilient backcheck.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Detroit Red Wings] — 55% win probability and aligned market action provide the strongest mathematical backing for the home favorite.

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