Tampa Bay Lightning vs Edmonton Oilers

League: NHL | Date: 2025-11-20 07:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-20 05:39 PM EST

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Edmonton Oilers on 2025-11-20

Game Times

ET: 7:30 PM
CT: 6:30 PM
MT: 5:30 PM
PT: 4:30 PM
AKT: 3:30 PM
HST: 1:30 PM

💰 Best Bet #1 [Edmonton Oilers / Spread / +1.5 at +110 / 60% / Oilers cover with strong road defensive metrics and Corsi advantage against Lightning’s recent high-danger concessions, supported by simulation’s 60% cover rate]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 6.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams show regression in shooting percentages lately, with Oilers’ backup goalie facing fatigue on back-to-back; average simulated total of 6.8 tilts slightly under amid balanced xGA per 60]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Tampa Bay Lightning / Moneyline / -154 / 52% / Home-ice edge and superior power-play efficiency give Lightning the nod in a close contest, aligning with 52% win probability despite Oilers’ star power]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Tampa Bay Lightning | 52% |
| Win % for Edmonton Oilers | 45% |
| Tie % | 3% |
| Spread Cover % for Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 | 40% |
| Spread Cover % for Edmonton Oilers +1.5 | 60% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Goals | 6.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-2.0, 4.0] |

💸 Public Bets
[65% / 35%]

💰 Money Distribution
[55% / 45%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Lightning -150 ML and held steady to -154, with puck line moving slightly from -1.5 +115 to +110 amid balanced action; total steady at 6.5.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Oilers +1.5] — EV derived from 60% cover probability vs. implied 56.5% at -130, supported by Oilers’ Corsi% edge in recent road tilts and no major lineup disruptions.

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Connor McDavid / Over 3.5 Shots on Goal / 3.5 at -110 / 70% / McDavid’s 4.2 shots per game average in current season exploits Lightning’s defensive zone starts, with high usage rate on back-to-back confirming over likelihood
Player Prop #2: Nikita Kucherov / Over 0.5 Points / 0.5 at -120 / 65% / Kucherov’s 1.2 points per game and power-play dominance against Oilers’ middling PK (78%) support over, especially at home with full lineup
Player Prop #3: Andrei Vasilevskiy / Over 27.5 Saves / 27.5 at -115 / 62% / Expected shot volume from Oilers’ offense (31 shots allowed avg) and Vasilevskiy’s .915 save % tilt over, factoring in Lightning’s home defensive regression

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans heavily toward the Lightning with 65% of bets, but money distribution is more balanced at 55%, indicating some sharp action on the Oilers amid their road resilience. This alignment suggests following the market consensus on the favorite while fading slightly on the spread due to EV edge on Edmonton covering. Overall game scoring projects as moderate, with both teams’ xGA per 60 around 2.8, favoring a slight under on the total given recent trends in save percentages and fatigue for the visitors.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Tampa Bay Lightning] — Mathematical probability favors the home win at 52%, bolstered by aligned market signals and superior home metrics despite the close simulation margin.

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