Golden State Warriors vs Portland Trail Blazers

League: NBA | Date: 2025-11-21 10:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-21 05:30 PM EST

Golden State Warriors vs Portland Trail Blazers on 2025-11-21

💰 Best Bet #1 [Golden State Warriors / Spread / -7.5 at -110 / 58% / Warriors show strong home dominance with a 5-0 ATS record at Chase Center and superior offensive rating against Portland’s weakened defense due to multiple injuries.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 236.5 at -110 / 48% / Both teams exhibit slower pace in recent matchups, with Portland’s injuries limiting scoring potential and Golden State’s average total points aligning below the line based on defensive efficiencies.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Golden State Warriors / Moneyline / -320 / 65% / High win probability driven by home advantage, key players probable, and historical edge over Portland in 9 of last 10 encounters.]

Game Times

ET: 10:00 PM
CT: 9:00 PM
MT: 8:00 PM
PT: 7:00 PM
AKT: 6:00 PM
HST: 4:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[72% / 28%]

💰 Money Distribution
[68% / 32%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -6.5 and moved to -7.5 with balanced action, indicating sharp support for the favorite despite public leaning.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Warriors spread; convergence of simulation win rates, injury impacts, and home splits create value against the line.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Golden State Warriors | 65.2% |
| Win % for Portland Trail Blazers | 34.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Golden State Warriors | 58.3% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 52.1% / Under: 47.9% |
| Average Total Points | 220.5 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10.2, 22.1] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors the Warriors, aligning with sharp money as indicated by line movement toward the favorite, making following the public optimal in this scenario. Portland’s injury report, including outs for Henderson, Lillard, and Thybulle, hampers their offense, while Golden State’s probable stars like Butler and Green bolster their edge. Overall game scoring outlook points to a moderate total, with defensive matchups and rest factors suggesting controlled pace below the high line.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Golden State Warriors] — mathematical probability favors the home team based on simulation outcomes and contextual advantages.

Highlights unavailable.