Florida vs Tennessee

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-22 07:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-22 06:30 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Florida / +3.5 / -110 / 55% / Simulation indicates 52% cover probability, aligning with slight reverse line movement and Florida’s home defensive edge against Tennessee’s road splits in the current season.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 57.5 at -110 / 62% / Both teams’ defenses rank top-25 in yards allowed per game this season, with recent trends showing unders in 7 of Tennessee’s last 10 road games and Florida’s low-tempo offense.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Tennessee / Moneyline / -155 / 54% / Tennessee holds a 53% win probability in simulations, supported by superior offensive efficiency (top-15 SP+) versus Florida’s bottom-half havoc rate.]

Florida vs Tennessee on 2025-11-22

Game Times
ET: 7:30 PM
CT: 6:30 PM
MT: 5:30 PM
PT: 4:30 PM
AKT: 3:30 PM
HST: 1:30 PM

💸 Public Bets
[Tennessee 65% / Florida 35%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Tennessee 72% / Florida 28%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
[Opened at Tennessee -3.5; held steady despite heavy public action on the favorite, indicating sharp balance on the spread.]

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Under 57.5; derived from simulation average total of 52 points versus the line, combined with defensive metrics showing both teams allowing under 24 PPG recently in the 2025 season.]

Top 3 Player Props
Player Prop #1: Joey Aguilar / Over Passing Yards / 245.5 at -115 / 68% / Aguilar ranks top-20 nationally in completion percentage under pressure this season; Florida’s secondary has allowed 280+ yards to QBs in 4 of last 6 home games.
Player Prop #2: DJ Lagway / Under Passing Yards / 210.5 at -110 / 65% / Lagway’s efficiency drops 15% against top-25 defenses like Tennessee’s; Gators’ offense averages just 22 completions in losses this year.
Player Prop #3: Eugene Wilson / Over Receptions / 5.5 at -120 / 70% / Wilson leads Florida in targets per game (8.2); Tennessee’s man coverage has been exploited for 6+ catches by slot WRs in recent matchups.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Florida | 45% |
| Win % for Tennessee | 53% |
| Spread Cover % for Florida (+3.5) | 52% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 51% / Under: 49% |
| Average Total Points | 52.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-20.0, 18.0] |

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Tennessee, aligning with money distribution and stable line movement, suggesting no strong fade opportunity as sharp action appears balanced rather than contrarian. Mathematical edges favor the under due to both teams’ elite defenses (top-20 in success rate allowed) and a projected low-scoring affair below the total line. Overall, the game outlook points to a defensive battle in the Swamp, with Tennessee’s edge in explosive plays providing a narrow path to victory.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Tennessee] — backed by superior metrics in offensive tempo and turnover margin this season.

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