UCLA vs Washington

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-22 10:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-22 06:35 PM EST

UCLA vs Washington on 2025-11-22

Game Times

ET: 10:30 PM
CT: 9:30 PM
MT: 8:30 PM
PT: 7:30 PM
AKT: 6:30 PM
HST: 4:30 PM

💰 Best Bet #1 [Washington / Spread / -10.5 at -110 / 60% / Washington’s strong recent form and UCLA’s defensive struggles support a cover, with simulation showing 59% likelihood despite injuries to key Huskies players.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 51.5 at -110 / 55% / Both teams’ offenses have trended low-scoring in Big Ten play, with UCLA allowing 350.9 yards per game and Washington’s tempo favoring unders in road games.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Washington / Moneyline / -450 / 75% / Huskies’ 7-3 record and superior SP+ rating give them a clear edge over 3-7 Bruins, aligning with 76% simulated win probability.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for UCLA | 24% |
| Win % for Washington | 76% |
| Spread Cover % for UCLA +10.5 | 41% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 47% / Under: 53% |
| Average Total Points | 51.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [Washington -6, -14] |

💸 Public Bets
[UCLA 30% / Washington 70%]

💰 Money Distribution
[UCLA 40% / Washington 60%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Washington -9.5 and moved to -10.5 with balanced action, indicating sharp support for the Huskies despite public leaning their way.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Washington spread / Line stability and simulation cover rate exceed implied odds probability, with Washington’s explosive play rate (28%) outpacing UCLA’s havoc defense (15%).]

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Nico Iamaleava / Under Passing Yards / 209.5 at -110 / 70% / Iamaleava has gone under this mark in 6 of 7 Power 4 starts this season, facing Washington’s secondary that limits QBs to 200 yards average against in road games.
Player Prop #2: Jonah Coleman / Over Rushing Yards / 65.5 at -115 / 65% / Coleman exceeds this in 10 of 12 games when active, with UCLA allowing 98.1 rushing yards per game; his probable status boosts usage against a weak Bruins front.
Player Prop #3: Rodrick Pleasant / Over Tackles + Assists / 6.5 at -120 / 68% / Pleasant leads UCLA in tackles (7.2 per game average), and Washington’s up-tempo offense (72 plays per game) projects high snap volume for the linebacker.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Washington, aligning with sharp money and money distribution, making a follow-the-public approach optimal as EV supports the Huskies without contrarian signals from RLM. UCLA’s three-game skid and Nico Iamaleava’s probable return do little to shift the edge, while Washington’s injuries (Coleman and Boston questionable) are offset by depth. Overall game scoring leans under due to both defenses’ solid yards-allowed metrics (UCLA 350.9, Washington 380 avg.) and low red-zone efficiency in recent Big Ten matchups.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Washington / Simulation and market consensus point to a 76% win probability, with positive EV on the spread and moneyline.]

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