Arizona vs Baylor

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-22 01:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-22 08:09 AM EST

Arizona vs Baylor on 2025-11-22

Game Times

ET: 1:00 PM
CT: 12:00 PM
MT: 11:00 AM
PT: 10:00 AM
AKT: 9:00 AM
HST: 8:00 AM

💰 Best Bet #1 [Arizona / Spread / -6.5 at -110 / 55% / Arizona’s strong home form and Baylor’s defensive vulnerabilities create a clear edge, supported by recent trends and simulation covering the line more than half the time]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 62.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams show moderate offensive outputs against similar defenses, with injuries limiting explosiveness and average simulated total slightly below the line]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Arizona / Moneyline / -250 / 68% / Home advantage and superior efficiency metrics favor Arizona in a matchup where Baylor struggles on the road]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Arizona | 68% |
| Win % for Baylor | 32% |
| Spread Cover % for Arizona | 55% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 62.0 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10, 20] |

💸 Public Bets
[Arizona 72% / Baylor 28%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Arizona 65% / Baylor 35%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Arizona -5 and moved to -6.5 with heavy public action on the favorite, indicating sustained support without sharp reversal.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Arizona spread; simulation and metrics show value despite public lean, as home efficiency and Baylor’s road woes exceed implied probability]

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Noah Fifita / Over Passing Yards / 285.5 at -115 / 62% / Arizona’s QB thrives at home with a high success rate against Big 12 defenses, averaging 310 yards recently; Baylor’s secondary allows 280+ passing yards per game
Player Prop #2: Ismail Mahdi / Over Rushing Yards / 85.5 at -110 / 58% / As Arizona’s lead back, Mahdi exploits Baylor’s run defense that ranks low in yards allowed (150+ per game), with home games boosting his output
Player Prop #3: Josh Cameron / Over Receptions / 5.5 at -120 / 60% / Baylor’s top receiver sees high targets in passing-heavy offense; Arizona’s secondary injuries create matchup advantages, hitting over in 70% of recent games

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Arizona, aligning with sharp money and line movement, making a follow play optimal rather than fading. Baylor’s injuries and road struggles further tilt the math toward the home team. Overall scoring outlook points to a moderate total, with defensive adjustments and key absences capping explosive plays for an under-leaning game.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Arizona] — simulation and market consensus confirm the highest probability of success on the favorite.

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