Colorado vs Arizona State

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-22 08:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-22 06:34 PM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Arizona State / Spread / -7 at -110 / 55% / Arizona State shows superior form and line movement favors them despite public lean to Colorado, with simulation indicating 52% cover probability above implied odds]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 56.5 at -110 / 54% / Both teams’ recent games trend toward higher scoring, with average simulated total at 56.2 points driven by ASU’s explosive offense against Colorado’s vulnerable defense]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Arizona State / Moneyline / -270 / 68% / Strong win probability from simulation and sharp money concentration, outweighing public bias on the home underdog]

Colorado vs Arizona State on 2025-11-22

Game Times

ET: 8:00 PM
CT: 7:00 PM
MT: 6:00 PM
PT: 5:00 PM
AKT: 4:00 PM
HST: 2:00 PM

💸 Public Bets
[Colorado 60% / Arizona State 40%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Arizona State 65% / Colorado 35%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at -6.5 for Arizona State and moved to -7 despite heavy public action on Colorado, indicating sharp money on the favorite.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3% on Arizona State spread / Reverse line movement and money concentration outweigh public bias, with simulation confirming 52% cover probability above implied odds]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Colorado | 32% |
| Win % for Arizona State | 68% |
| Spread Cover % for Colorado (+7) | 48% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 54% / Under: 46% |
| Average Total Points | 56.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-12, +6] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Jordyn Tyson / Over Receiving Yards / 75.5 at -110 / 65% / Tyson’s high usage in ASU’s passing attack exploits Colorado’s secondary weaknesses, averaging 85 yards in recent games with favorable matchup data
Player Prop #2: Cam Skattebo / Over Rushing Yards / 100.5 at -110 / 70% / Skattebo’s explosive runs (5.2 yards per carry) align with Colorado’s poor run defense allowing 150+ yards lately, supported by high success rate metrics
Player Prop #3: Julian Lewis / Over Passing Yards / 220.5 at -110 / 60% / Lewis benefits from Colorado’s depleted secondary and home desperation, projecting above line based on efficiency ratings against similar defenses

Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Colorado as the home underdog, but sharp money and reverse line movement point toward Arizona State, creating a mathematical edge on the favorite despite the divergence. Following the professionals aligns with simulation outcomes and current form, where ASU’s offensive efficiency overwhelms Colorado’s struggles. Overall game scoring outlook leans higher, with both teams’ defenses vulnerable to explosive plays leading to an average total exceeding the line.

Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Arizona State / No clear edge] — whichever has the best mathematical probability of winning.

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