Iowa State vs Kansas

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-22 12:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-22 08:06 AM EST

💰 Best Bet #1 [Iowa State / Spread / -3.5 at -110 / 58% / Iowa State holds a strong home advantage and superior recent form, covering in 4 of last 5 home games against Big 12 foes.]
💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 55.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams feature stout defenses allowing under 25 PPG recently, with average total in simulations at 49.2 points.]
💰 Best Bet #3 [Iowa State / Moneyline / -170 / 62% / Cyclones’ offensive efficiency and Kansas’ road struggles give Iowa State the edge in win probability.]

Iowa State vs Kansas on 2025-11-22

Game Times

ET: 12:00 PM
CT: 11:00 AM
MT: 10:00 AM
PT: 9:00 AM
AKT: 8:00 AM
HST: 6:00 AM

💸 Public Bets

[Iowa State 65% / Kansas 35%]

💰 Money Distribution

[Iowa State 58% / Kansas 42%]

💹 Market Alignment

[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at Iowa State -2.5 and moved to -3.5 with balanced action, indicating sharp support for the favorite despite public lean.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on Iowa State spread; simulations show 58% cover rate against implied 52.4% odds probability, supported by home-field metrics and defensive efficiencies.]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Iowa State | 62.0% |
| Win % for Kansas | 36.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Iowa State | 58.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48% / Under: 52% |
| Average Total Points | 49.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-10.5, 17.2] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Rocco Becht / Over Passing Yards / 225.5 / -115 / 68% / Becht averages 248 yards per game in 2025, exploiting Kansas’ secondary that allows 280+ passing yards in 4 of last 6 road games.
Player Prop #2: Leshon Williams / Under Rushing Yards / 85.5 / -110 / 62% / Williams held under 80 yards in 3 straight against top-30 rush defenses like Iowa State’s, with havoc rate limiting explosive runs.
Player Prop #3: Jalon Daniels / Over Passing Yards / 210.5 / -120 / 65% / Daniels thrives in shootouts, averaging 235 yards vs. Big 12 teams, and Iowa State’s pass rush has weakened post-injury.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment leans toward Iowa State but aligns with sharp money on the spread, making a follow play optimal given the Cyclones’ 62% simulated win rate and home dominance. Kansas’ offense struggles on the road, but Daniels could keep it close if protected. Overall game scoring tilts low due to both defenses ranking top-25 in points allowed, favoring the under.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Follow the public with Iowa State] — mathematical probability favors the home team based on form, simulations, and market consensus.

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