UNLV vs Hawai'i

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-21 10:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-21 08:06 AM EST

🏈 UNLV vs Hawai’i on 2025-11-21

💰 Best Bet #1 [UNLV / Spread / -3 at -110 / 55% / UNLV’s superior success rate (48%) and home-field advantage edge out Hawaii’s explosive plays, with line movement showing sharp support despite public lean.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Over / Total / 58.5 at -110 / 56% / Both offenses average over 30 points recently, with Hawaii’s tempo (72 plays/game) and UNLV’s defensive lapses pushing totals higher in mild Las Vegas weather.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [UNLV / Moneyline / -150 / 61% / Simulation and current form give UNLV clear edge over Hawaii’s road inconsistencies.]

Game Times

ET: 10:30 PM
CT: 9:30 PM
MT: 8:30 PM
PT: 7:30 PM
AKT: 6:30 PM
HST: 4:30 PM

💸 Public Bets

[40% UNLV / 60% Hawai’i]

💰 Money Distribution

[70% UNLV / 30% Hawai’i]

💹 Market Alignment

[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement

Line opened at -2.5 and moved to -3 amid sharp money on UNLV, despite 60% public tickets on the underdog Hawai’i.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)

[+3.2% on UNLV spread / Reverse line movement against public action, combined with UNLV’s +5 turnover differential, creates value despite Hawaii’s passing attack.]

Simulation Results

| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for UNLV | 61% |
| Win % for Hawai’i | 39% |
| Spread Cover % for UNLV (-3) | 53% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 56% / Under: 44% |
| Average Total Points | 58.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-1.5, +7.2] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Micah Alejado / Over Passing Yards / 265.5 at -115 / 62% / Alejado’s 68% completion rate and 2,800+ season yards exploit UNLV’s secondary allowing 250+ pass yds in 4 of last 6, with no key DB injuries.

Player Prop #2: Jai’Den Thomas / Over Rushing Yards / 85.5 at -110 / 58% / Thomas averages 92 yds/game on 5.2 ypc, facing Hawaii’s run defense yielding 150+ rush yds in recent road games, boosted by home tempo.

Player Prop #3: Anthony Colandrea / Over Passing TDs / 1.5 at -120 / 55% / Colandrea’s +2.1 CPOE and 18 TD season total align with Hawaii’s secondary allowing 2+ TD passes in 5 straight, per current metrics.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors the underdog Hawai’i at 60%, but sharp money (70%) and reverse line movement point to UNLV, creating a fade opportunity backed by simulation edges. Both teams’ defenses rank bottom-40 in explosive play allowance, suggesting a high-scoring affair over 58.5. Follow the math on UNLV for positive EV, as Hawaii’s travel fatigue and turnover issues limit upset potential.

🔮 Recommended Play

[Fade the public on Hawai’i / UNLV spread and moneyline show strongest probability based on alignment and metrics.]

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