Army vs Tulsa

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-22 12:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-22 08:07 AM EST

Army vs Tulsa on 2025-11-22

💰 Best Bet #1 [Army / Spread / -10 at -110 / 58% / Army’s dominant run game and defensive efficiency give them a strong edge to cover at home against Tulsa’s struggling offense in the current 2025 season.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 47 at -110 / 56% / Both teams rank low in yards per play and explosive plays this season, with Army’s havoc rate limiting scoring opportunities for a low-output game.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Army / Moneyline / -400 / 74% / Army’s superior SP+ rating and turnover margin in 2025 make them heavy favorites, especially with home-field advantage at Michie Stadium.]

Game Times

ET: 12:00 PM
CT: 11:00 AM
MT: 10:00 AM
PT: 9:00 AM
AKT: 8:00 AM
HST: 6:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
[Tulsa 54% / Army 46%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Tulsa 39% / Army 61%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Divergent]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened around -5 for Army but steamed to -10 amid heavy sharp action on the favorite, indicating professional resistance to public backing of the underdog.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+3.2% on Army spread; reverse line movement against public percentage, combined with Army’s 2025 success rate metrics, creates value despite low-volume early wagering.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Army | 74.2% |
| Win % for Tulsa | 25.8% |
| Spread Cover % for Army | 57.6% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 44.3% / Under: 55.7% |
| Average Total Points | 46.8 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-4.2, 24.7] |

Top 3 Player Props
Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment leans toward Tulsa as the underdog, but sharp money and reverse line movement favor Army, creating a mathematical case to follow the professionals rather than fade the public. Contextual factors like Army’s home advantage and Tulsa’s road struggles in 2025 support this alignment without invalidating the edge. Overall game scoring outlook points low, with both defenses allowing under 25 points per game on average this season.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the sharp money with Army — line movement and money distribution confirm the highest probability of success.

Highlights unavailable.