Toledo vs Ball State

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-22 02:00 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-22 08:12 AM EST

Toledo vs Ball State on 2025-11-22

💰 Best Bet #1 Toledo / Spread / -14.5 at -110 / 60% Confidence
Toledo’s superior SP+ rating and home-field advantage in the Glass Bowl, combined with Ball State’s poor road success rate (1-4 ATS away this season), support covering the spread. Recent form shows Toledo winning by an average of 18 points at home.

💰 Best Bet #2 Over / Total / 50.5 at -110 / 52% Confidence
Both teams rank in the top 60 for offensive tempo and explosive plays per game, with Toledo allowing 24.2 points per contest and Ball State scoring 22.1 on average. Defensive injuries on both sides tilt toward a higher-scoring affair, aligning with 51% over probability in simulations.

💰 Best Bet #3 Toledo / Moneyline / -550 / 75% Confidence
Toledo’s 6-4 record and 4-2 MAC standing dominate Ball State’s 4-6 mark, with the Rockets holding a 72.5% win probability. Head-to-head trends favor Toledo by 15+ points in recent matchups.

Game Times

ET: 2:00 PM
CT: 1:00 PM
MT: 12:00 PM
PT: 11:00 AM
AKT: 10:00 AM
HST: 8:00 AM

💸 Public Bets
Toledo 72% / Ball State 28%

💰 Money Distribution
Toledo 68% / Ball State 32%

💹 Market Alignment
Aligned

📉 Line Movement
The spread opened at -13.5 and moved to -14.5 early in the week with balanced action, stabilizing as public money flowed to the favorite without sharp resistance. Total held steady at 50.5 amid neutral weather in Toledo.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
+3.2% EV on Toledo spread, driven by line value against public overbetting and simulation cover rate exceeding implied odds probability. No strong edge on total or ML due to tight projections.

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|——–|——-|
| Win % for Toledo | 72.5% |
| Win % for Ball State | 25.0% |
| Spread Cover % for Toledo | 55.0% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 51.0% / Under: 49.0% |
| Average Total Points | 48.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-20.0, 38.0] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player Prop #1: Tucker Gleason / Over Passing Yards / 245.5 / -115 / 68% Confidence
Gleason averages 278 yards per game in home starts this season, facing a Ball State secondary ranked 110th in pass defense (allowing 7.8 yards per attempt). With no major Toledo injuries, his usage in high-tempo offenses supports clearing this line.

Player Prop #2: Chip Trayanum / Over Rushing Yards / 85.5 / -110 / 62% Confidence
Trayanum has hit over 90 yards in 4 of 6 MAC games, exploiting Ball State’s 98th-ranked rush defense (4.2 yards per carry allowed). Toledo’s ground game efficiency (top-50 success rate) and home pace favor a strong output.

Player Prop #3: Qua Ashley / Under Tackles / 6.5 / -105 / 65% Confidence
Ashley’s tackle average drops to 4.2 on the road against pass-heavy teams like Toledo (top-40 passing explosiveness), with limited snaps due to rotational defense. Ball State’s lower havoc rate reduces his opportunities.

⚖️ Analysis Summary

Public sentiment heavily favors Toledo, aligning with sharp money and market consensus, making a follow play optimal rather than fading. Ball State’s recent losses highlight defensive vulnerabilities, while Toledo’s balanced attack suggests moderate scoring without extreme over/under bias. Overall, the game projects as a comfortable home win with a slight lean over based on offensive metrics and injury impacts.

🔮 Recommended Play
Follow the public with Toledo — mathematical probability favors the Rockets across spread, moneyline, and simulations, supported by form and matchup edges.

Highlights unavailable.