Vanderbilt vs Kentucky

League: NCAAF | Date: 2025-11-22 03:30 PM EST | Last Updated: 2025-11-22 02:06 PM EST

Vanderbilt vs Kentucky on 2025-11-22

💰 Best Bet #1 [Vanderbilt / Spread / -10 at -110 / 58% / Vanderbilt’s strong home form and Kentucky’s recent losses create value on the spread, with simulation showing solid cover probability despite line movement favoring the home team.]

💰 Best Bet #2 [Under / Total / 52.5 at -110 / 52% / Both teams’ defenses limit explosive plays, with average simulated total at 49.2 points indicating a low-scoring affair influenced by injuries and conservative play-calling.]

💰 Best Bet #3 [Vanderbilt / Moneyline / -350 / 73% / Vanderbilt’s superior record and home advantage align with high win probability, offering edge despite heavy favorite status.]

Game Times

ET: 3:30 PM
CT: 2:30 PM
MT: 1:30 PM
PT: 12:30 PM
AKT: 11:30 AM
HST: 9:30 AM

💸 Public Bets
[Vanderbilt 72% / Kentucky 28%]

💰 Money Distribution
[Vanderbilt 65% / Kentucky 35%]

💹 Market Alignment
[Aligned]

📉 Line Movement
Line opened at Vanderbilt -9 and moved to -10.5 amid sharp action on the home team, despite public leaning heavy on Vanderbilt.

💡 Mathematical Edge (EV)
[+4.2% on Vanderbilt spread; simulation probabilities exceed implied odds, supported by Vanderbilt’s efficiency metrics and Kentucky’s turnover issues in current season games.]

Simulation Results
| Metric | Value |
|———————————|——————————–|
| Win % for Vanderbilt | 72.5% |
| Win % for Kentucky | 27.5% |
| Spread Cover % for Vanderbilt| 58.2% |
| Over/Under Probability | Over: 48.0% / Under: 52.0% |
| Average Total Points | 49.2 |
| 95% Confidence Interval for Margin | [-5.2, 24.8] |

Top 3 Player Props

Player props unavailable due to roster or injury verification failure.

⚖️ Analysis Summary
Public sentiment heavily favors Vanderbilt, aligning with sharp money and line movement, making a follow on the home team optimal based on mathematical edges from efficiency ratings and recent form. Kentucky’s defensive vulnerabilities are offset by Vanderbilt’s balanced attack, but overall game scoring projects low due to both teams’ below-average yards per play allowed in the current season. No strong contrarian fade emerges, as contextual factors like home-field advantage reinforce the consensus.

🔮 Recommended Play
[Follow the public with Vanderbilt] — simulation and market data point to the highest probability of a home win and cover.

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